In a clash between experience and youth, Jake Matthews will take on Francisco Prado at UFC 312 on the main card.
Matthews is a 10-year veteran with 20 fights under the UFC banner. And at just 22 years old, Prado looks to regain the upward trajectory of a promising career in a bout that should feature plenty of exciting moments, no matter who walks out victorious.
Here's my Matthews vs. Prado prediction.
Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado UFC 312 Odds
| Matthews Odds | -245 |
| Prado Odds | +200 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-188/+145) |
| Location | Sydney, Australia |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 312 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Matthews | Prado | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-7 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:34 | 11:22 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/19/1994 | 6/16/2002 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.38 | 4.58 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.54 | 5.66 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.56 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 0% |
| TD Def | 64% | 25% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.4 |
Jake Matthews has had an up-and-down tenure over the last decade in the UFC, but it’s clear he has rounded out his skillset to become a complete fighter at just 30 years of age. Matthews has been a very active fighter, with just three losses over the previous five years, two of which were at the hands of potentially elite fighters at the top of the welterweight division. You can even make the case that Francisco Prado may be a step down in competition from the recent strength of schedule Matthews has been tasked with.
With that said, this is still a dangerous fight for Matthews. Prado has only had three UFC contests, and there are still plenty of questions to be answered, given the matchmaking of his career up to this point. In his debut, Prado was thrown into the fire on short notice against a UFC veteran, Jamie Mullarkey. In a fight in which getting a knockout may have been his only path to victory, he predictably lost a decision.
Prado displayed his explosive striking ability in his rebound victory over Ottman Azaitar. Still, it was a bout in which he should have won if he was to prove he was truly ready to be a UFC-level fighter. Most recently, Prado again was tasked with a major step up in competition, facing Daniel Zellhuber. Prado's strides in closing the distance and entering into striking range were evident as he took the fight to Zellhuber, winning the first round and outstriking the much longer athlete in the early going before the tides turned.
Despite dropping to 1-2 in his UFC career, you get the sense Prado may just now be entering his prime. His skills have improved each time we have seen him enter the octagon, and if we are being honest, each result was expected given the matchup at that time.
This battle with Jake Matthews will continue to answer key questions in evaluating Prado. While Matthews has better movement in the kickboxing range, he has been stung by several overhand rights and counter-right hands over the years. Prado has the hand speed, aggressiveness and countering ability to make Matthews pay if the veteran is not measured in his approach.
If Matthews’ camp dials up a game plan most conducive to exploiting the weak areas of Prado’s game, it will be one that showcases the wrestling and cardio edge for Matthews. Prado will be the one moving forward to begin this bout, and Matthews has a poor habit of backing up to the fence.
Shooting for a takedown and getting the fight to the mat would aid in draining some explosiveness from the Prado striking attack, keep Matthews out of potential danger, and it will allow Matthews to use his quick transitions on the ground to put the younger fighter in some very precarious positions.
Matthews vs. Prado Prediction, Pick
Make no mistake, Francisco Prado has the ability to land some damaging shots early in this fight, but it would be borderline shocking if Matthews allows him to consistently close the distance without threatening a takedown. Thus, I am going to take two positions on this fight, covering what I believe are the most likely paths to victory. My backing of Prado in round 1 will be of the smaller variety to ensure coverage in case Jake Matthews's poor fight IQ rears its ugly head once more.
John's Picks: Francisco Prado Round 1 KO/TKO +900 (FanDuel) | Jake Matthews by Submission or Decision -155 (FanDuel)
