Jamie Pickett vs. Joseph Holmes Odds
| Pickett Odds | +130 |
| Holmes Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Venue | UFC APEX |
| Time | Approx. 6:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute UFC odds here. | |
On the prelim card, Jamie Pickett will face off against UFC newcomer Joseph "Ugly Man" Holmes. Holmes is 7-1 in the UFC and just landed himself onto the UFC roster. His first fight as an official member of the UFC is not going to be an easy one against Pickett.
Pickett is a veteran coming off of a pretty impressive victory as an underdog against Laureano Staropoli. Holmes being given favorite status in his first fight against a UFC caliber fighter like Pickett is a ton of respect to the 26-year old youngster.
We will find out a lot about Holmes this weekend. Below I preview this prelim bout.
Tale of the Tape
| Pickett | Holmes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-6 | 7-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:25 | 7:46 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 80" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/29/88 | 7/4/95 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.94 | 1.55 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 32% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.37 | 2.32 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.59 | 3.86 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 40% |
| TD Def | 64% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 1.9 |
Joseph Holmes is massive for a middleweight. The fact that he is 6-foot-4 with an 80-inch reach is intimidating for anyone in the division. Unfortunately for him, Pickett matches his 80-inch reach, one of the few who can.
Holmes has rock-solid submissions, showcased by his rear-naked choke of Shonte Barnes in the Dana White Contender's Series. Holmes' back take is his best position by far.
Of note, Holmes has made some past mistakes by attempting to advance before securing the position first. This is a mistake he has made in the past.
For instance, in his fight against DeWayne Diggs at LFA 114 (Aug. 2021) there were some troubling techniques. Holmes seemed to panic on the ground when battling for positional control; something you cannot against UFC caliber opponents.
Furthermore, Holmes uses his size to wear on opponents and then get submissions when they tired out. His five submissions in seven wins are particularly impressive.
Watching a few of his past fights, Holmes looked particularly raw while striking. He was hit with several body kicks from Barnes, I would expect a more experienced fighter like Pickett to attack there.
Consequently, Pickett profiles as the much slicker kickboxer than Holmes so striking exchanges should mostly favor Pickett.
Moreover, we saw Laureano Staropoli really struggle to take Pickett down. Getting Pickett to the ground will be no easy task for Holmes if he hopes to dominate grappling exchanges.
Pickett actually landed two takedowns of his own against Staropoli. There is some worry that Pickett does not control the center of the octagon when he fights as he steps back far too frequently.
Pickett vs. Holmes Pick
Newly graduated Dana White Contender's Series alumni are usually betting 'fades' more often than not. Holmes is just 26 so it is entirely possible that he has improved his game dramatically.
However, making him a favorite so soon is surprising given only his eight professional fights.
Barring some notable improvements in his striking, he is not the same fighter that Pickett is at this point. If he improves his striking, this will change his game entirely thanks to his size advantage.
For now, Pickett should have a big striking advantage both in power and volume. Holmes' grappling is highly thought of but judging by his technique, I fear that he could run into problems submitting the highest level guys in MMA.
Pickett is a three-stripe brown belt in BJJ according to FightBook MMA. Pickett truly looks like the better fighter almost everywhere.
It will be interesting to see how cardio plays a factor on Saturday as we get into the second and third rounds. Pickett looked plenty energetic in Round 3 against Staropoli last time out.
BetMGM has Pickett as a +130 underdog in this fight which looks like a gift until we see Holmes show off improved skills.
Bet Pickett to pick'em (see what I did there?) status at -110 before taking a stab at his decision prop of +280 or better.
The Pick: Pickett ML +130 | Pickett wins by decision +300 (BetMGM)
