Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos Ulberg Odds, Prediction
| Blachowicz Odds | +240 |
| Ulberg Odds | -298 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-145/+114) |
| Location | O2 Arena | London, England |
| Bout Time | 6:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC London odds via DraftKings as of Thursday. Bet on UFC London with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos Ulberg predictions, picks and odds for UFC London on Saturday, March 22
With the light heavyweight title changing hands a few weeks ago, Jan Blachowicz and Carlos Ulberg are potentially fighting for a number one contender spot in London. Blachowicz fought current champion Magomed Ankalaev to a draw in 2022, while Ulberg has won seven straight fights with five finishes since dropping his UFC debut. Therefore, both are in a good spot to challenge for a title with a win this weekend.
Here's my Blachowicz vs. Ulberg prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Blachowicz | Ulberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 29-10-1 | 22-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:06 | 6:57 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/24/1983 | 11/07/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.41 | 7.20 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.91 | 4.27 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.09 | 0.72 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 75% |
| TD Def | 68% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Jan Blachowicz was one of the more unlikely champions in UFC history, first winning gold in 2020 at age 37 after starting his UFC tenure with a 2-4 record. He won the vacant title after former long running champion Jon Jones took a hiatus from the sport, and defended it just once before dropping the title to Glover Teixeira.
His previous draw against Ankalaev was also for the vacant title, though the vast majority of media scorecards had that fight going to the now champion. He then took Alex Pereira to a close split decision. That means despite being winless in his last two fights, he gave the two best fighters in the division a run for their money in those fights.
Blachowicz did all of that despite the lack of a truly dominant skill in one area. While much is made of his "legendary Polish power" his knockdown rate isn't much above the divisional average, and he averages right around one takedown per 15 minutes of cage time.
However, he also lacks an exploitable weakness in any area, and is well rounded enough to tailor his style for the opponent in front of him. That was on display in his win against Israel Adesanya and close loss to Pereira, each of whom he took down three times.
He'll likely look to follow that gameplan against Ulberg, who is also a former kickboxing champion who converted to MMA.
That elephant in the room is Blachowicz's age and health concerns. At his peak he wasn't an elite athlete for the division, and he just turned 42 years old last month. We should expect some degradation in his skills at that age.
Especially since he's coming off surgeries to both shoulders that has kept him out of action the last 20 months. At best, he'll be a bit rusty after such a protracted break from training and competing. At worst, the shoulders are less than 100%, impacting his power, grappling ability, or even ability to block strikes.
All of which he'll need against Ulberg. The 34 year old Kiwi trains at City Kickboxing in New Zealand, which has quickly become the destination for former kickboxers transitioning to MMA. Ulberg employs a vaguely similar style to his teammate Adesanya, though with a more offensive minded approach.
While Ulberg utilizes the classic City Kickboxing feints, he's typically the one leading the dance in his fights rather than relying on counter striking. At 6'4" he has good length for the division, and can keep opponents at range with kicks and straight punches.
While he'll occasionally get sucked into exchanges, his athleticism and durability usually allow him to emerge unscathed. There's been some exceptions — the knockout loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu in his promotional debut, for example — but not many. He'll have a massive speed and power edge over Blachowicz this time, so getting caught isn't a major concern.
Ulberg has also been taken down just once in his eight UFC fights, while defending seven attempts. That's partially due to favorable matchups against strikers, but he's managed to deter attempts by managing range as well as defend the majority of the attempts that get through.
Against a younger Blachowicz I'd be somewhat concerned of that changing, but this version is less of a threat.
Blachowicz vs. Ulberg Prediction
The betting line here has shifted heavily towards Ulberg, who opened at -198 on DraftKings and was -245 as of Monday. Even so, it's hard to see this one ending without "The Black Jag" getting his hand raised.
While I almost never lay close to -300 odds on MMA fights, I'm willing to make an exception here. Most of the usual options for cutting the effective juice are somewhat tricky. Ulberg picking up a finish wouldn't exactly surprise me, but Blachowicz has been knocked down just one in 20 UFC fights.
The only option I'd even consider is Ulberg's -3.5 point spread at DraftKings, which would cash with a finish or a clean sweep on the judges scorecards. That's the option I'd take if you don't want to lay -290, but I'm comfortable eating the chalk this time around. The -290 line is available at FanDuel.
Billy's Pick: Carlos Ulberg -290 (FanDuel)
