Jan Blachowicz vs. Glover Teixeira Odds
For the first time since April 2014, Glover Teixeira has a chance to win UFC gold. In what would be considered an unlikely title fight just a couple years ago, Jan Blachowicz makes his second defense of the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, this time against Teixeira.
Blachowicz knocked out Dominick Reyes to win the title and then beat Israel Adesanya via decision in his first defense. Teixeira, meanwhile, has won five straight, including four finishes. His only losses in the UFC have come to the best of the light heavyweight division over the last decade, and he’s taken out some of the biggest names at 205 pounds.
Let's break down the main event of UFC 267. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Blachowicz | Teixeira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-8 | 32-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:40 | 9:13 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/24/83 | 10/28/79 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.59 | 3.75 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.79 | 3.84 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.18 | 2.04 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 40% |
| TD Def | 65% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 1.0 |
Father time comes for us all — except maybe Glover Teixeira. The recently turned 42-year-old is back in a title fight for the first time since 2014 when he lost to Jon Jones by decision at UFC 172.
The Brazilian will make his 20th walk to the Octagon on Saturday and will hope to extend his five-fight winning streak — which includes finishes over Karl Roberson, Ion Cutelaba, Anthony Smith, and Thiago Santos — and put a cap on his career with a world title.
There have been numerous hairy moments along the recent winning streak. Teixeira has been rocked multiple times on the feet, but has always managed to survive, and utilize his grappling chops to turn the outcomes of those matchups.
The importance of a grappling edge against Blachowicz cannot be overstated: if Glover can grapple Jan, offensively, he's going to look like the right side at a juicy underdog price.
Blachowicz has decent takedown defense (65%) and very solid jiu-jitsu, but he's not particularly adept off of his back, and Teixeira (2.04 takedowns per 15 minutes, 40% accuracy, 1.0 submissions per 15 minutes) has a vicious top game.
Blachowicz is known for his "polish power" and he's a slightly more efficient striker, but the striking metrics between these two fighters are relatively comparable.
And while I question the validity of Jan's recent knockouts and wins — all against former middleweights, or declining chins — I wouldn't be surprised if he ends Glover on the first exchange of the fight; that chin is a ticking time bomb.
Such is the adventurous nature of backing a 42-year-old Light Heavyweight in a cage fight. If Teixeira can dirty this fight up, though, and extend the matchup into the championship rounds, he's certainly capable of pulling off the upset.
Blachowicz vs. Teixeira Pick
Jan has been the underrated fighter all along his UFC run, closing as an underdog in eight of his past nine bouts. Still, he's now looking a tad overrated coming in as a -300 (75% implied) favorite, against a legend who has recently put away multiple top-tier opponents.
I would bet Teixeira's moneyline down to +225, and I also show value on his submission prop (projected +666).
Additionally, I project the fight to end inside the distance (projected -275) more often than the odds suggest (listed -220).
However, I have a difficult read with the total. I could see either man grinding out a decision, Blachowicz landing an early kill shot, or Glover finding a finish on the mat.
I'm hesitant to pull the trigger, despite the projected edge. I'll update this post if I do, but Glover (down to +225) is the bet for now.
The Pick: Glover Teixeira (+270, play to +225)
