Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho Odds
| 12:30 a.m. ET (Sunday) | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho odds on Saturday, August 23 – with Sean Zerillo's expert UFC prediction and pick.
The UFC will return to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas tonight for an important middleweight main event between No. 5-ranked UFC contender and former title challenger Jared Cannonier and No. 12-ranked Caio Borralho.
The Brazilian-born Borralho, who's 6-0 in the UFC in addition to a pair of wins on Contender Series, will compete in his first-ever main event or five-round fight on Saturday. He's earned a pair of performance bonuses in his past three fights – a knockout win over Paul Craig and a submission over Michal Olekeicjczuk.
Cannonier – one of two fighters (along with Conor McGregor) to have knockouts in three different weight classes – is 7-3 in the UFC middleweight division and will enter his sixth five-round fight in his past eight appearances. Cannonier had a questionable TKO loss to Nassourdine Imavov at the Apex in June; Cannonier was wobbled, but the fight was likely stopped prematurely. At the time, Cannonier led 2-1 on two of the three judges' scorecards.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 96 main event tonight and utilize those factors to bet on Borralho and Cannonier, who should make who should make their cage walks at approximately 12:25 a.m. ET on Sunday morning (9:25 p.m. on Saturday night) on ESPN and ESPN+.
Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape
| Cannonier | Borralho | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-7 | 16-1 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:06 | 11:20 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 75" |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/16/1984 | 1/16/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.6 | 2.9 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 60% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.2 | 2.1 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.47 | 1.99 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 63% |
| TD Def | 61% | 76% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.5 |
Borralho is nine years younger than 40-year-old Cannonier.
As I regularly mention, younger fighters are typically undervalued when there's a substantial age gap between opponents. Across more than 700 fights since 2013, fighters at least nine years younger than their opponent have won 71.1% of fights at average odds of -129 (56.5% implied), a near 15% differential in actual vs. implied win probability.
Cannonier is a high-volume striker with a two-inch reach advantage; he lands an additional 1.1 strikes per minute (4.9 vs. 3.8) at distance compared to Borralho. Still, the Brazilian has been more efficient, outlanding opponents by 0.5 strikes per minute at range while Cannonier has a negative strike differential (-0.1).
Cannonier can rack up volume (middleweight record 241 significant strikes against Marvin Vettori) when opponents stand before him. Still, Borralho is a better athlete with better footwork than Vettori, and I don't expect him to hang in the pocket – even in the smaller confines of the UFC Apex.
Borralho will look to stay on the outside, maneuver away from Cannonier's punches, and look to land kicks to the legs and body – before closing the distance and searching for takedowns. Cannonier should land more punches, but Borralho should have the superior volume of kicks, and I'd expect the overall striking volume – and any striking rounds – to play out competitively.
That said, Borralho has all the grappling upside in this fight and is a deserving favorite.
Borralho, who's out of the surging Fighting Nerds gym in Sao Paulo, is extremely measured and sticks to a game plan. He didn't pursue a takedown in either of his past two fights against Paul Craig or Abus Magomedov, but Borralho has proactively wrestled when he has a clear grappling edge (2.1 takedown attempts per round, 60% accuracy).
Aside from Derek Brunson (who won the first round against Jared), Cannonier has largely faced a schedule full of strikers at middleweight. He has been taken down and held down by grapplers in the past (62% career takedown defense, on 1.8 attempts per round), and Borralho may have the best ground control of the fighters that he has faced.
Cannonier's submission defense has held up to date. He denied a deep guillotine and multiple arm triangle entries from Glover Teixeira – and fended off a submission attempt from Brunson after getting knocked down.
Borralho may be able to finish this fight if he can take Cannonier's back – Teixeira didn't get a back take until 20 seconds were remaining in their fight – but I didn't like how Cannonier defended those positions.
Moreover, Cannonier often seems too reliant on his explosiveness and grip strength to return to his feet and separate after getting taken down. While he was able to survive on the ground and eventually scramble back to his feet against other grapplers, those fighters didn't prioritize jiu-jitsu-based control or possess nearly the same level of stamina, durability or striking as Borralho.
Any striking rounds could be a coinflip – if not slightly favoring Cannonier – but any grappling rounds should be clear for Borralho, who also seems like the far likelier finisher. Despite being a former heavyweight (and his overall appearance), Cannonier doesn't necessarily carry the one-shot knockout power in his hands that you'd expect him to. He's more of an attritional finisher, and Borralho won't engage in a high-volume striking affair.
Cannonier's upside is seemingly a close and competitive decision where he edges three rounds; Borralho's upside is a dominant decision or submission victory. As a result, I'd lean to the favorite or pass.
Cannonier vs. Borralho Pick
I projected Caio Borralho as a -265 favorite (72.6% implied odds) in this matchup and would consider betting his moneyline at -240 (70.6% implied) or better.
Wait for any dip from the current best available odds at -250.
I also projected this fight to reach a decision 55% of the time (-122 implied odds) and would bet the Over 4.5 Rounds or Goes to Decision Prop (+120 at FanDuel) at any plus-money price.
Moreover, I project correlated value on either fighter to win by decision, with Borralho (projected +150, listed +210) and Cannoiner (+564, listed +600) both seemingly undervalued to win on points.
Given my fight analysis, I would sprinkle Borralho by decision – or use it as a round-robin piece.
Still, I prefer the safety of the distance prop; there's a chance Cannonier's five-round experience proves the difference and that he rallies to win minutes down the stretch of this fight.
The Picks: Fight Goes to Decision (+120 at FanDuel) | Caio Borralho Wins by Decision (+210 at FanDuel)
