Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues Odds, Prediction
| Cannonier Odds | +195 |
| Rodrigues Odds | -238 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-105/-125) |
| Location | UFC Apex Center | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 102 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Vegas 102 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues predictions, picks, and odds for UFC Vegas 102 on Saturday, February 15.
On Saturday, the UFC will return to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 12-fight card featuring an important middleweight main event between No. 7 contender and former title challenger Jared Cannonier and unranked Brazilian Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues.
Cannonier will compete in his sixth consecutive main event or five-round fight (four at the APEX) and the eighth of his professional career. Conversely, Rodrigues (3-2 in decisions in 15-minute fights) could see championship rounds for the first time.
Robocop hopes to extend his three-fight winning streak, move to 8-2 in the promotion and continue on a title run. At the same time, Cannonier looks to bounce back from a two-fight losing streak and solidify himself as a gatekeeper to the top five, even at age 40.
Here's my Cannonier vs. Rodrigues prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Cannonier | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-8 | 16-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:46 | 8:13 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 75" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/16/1984 | 2/17/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.49 | 5.52 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.39 | 4.69 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.42 | 2.74 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 41% |
| TD Def | 62% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.4 |
While Jared Cannonier holds the distinction — alongside Conor McGregor — as the only male fighter with knockouts across three different UFC weight classes, the "Killa Gorilla" turned into more of a cardio-oriented volume puncher in his late thirties and early forties, setting the divisional record for significant strikes (241) in his 2023 win over Marvin Vettori.
Fighters in heavier weight classes (where speed is a less significant factor) age more gracefully than their smaller colleagues. Still, Cannonier's elite athleticism and conditioning (especially for his age) are due for significant regression at some point soon. He's been outclassed and ultimately knocked down or out at striking range in each of his past two fights and seemingly tired in the championship rounds of both contests.
Rodrigues is eight years younger than Cannonier, and when there's at least an eight-year gap between MMA opponents, the younger fighters have won 68.8% of the time at average odds of -125, or 55.6% implied, more than 13% above expectation.
While Cannonier has five-round experience (eight career five-round fights) — and Rodrigues does not — I'm now uncertain that the American will have a cardio advantage in the fourth and fifth rounds, as I would have anticipated as recently as 18 months ago. Cannonier tore his MCL in training after the Vettori win, and both his output and cardio have waned in the two fights since.
Moreover, he's looked less durable, too. I would have previously given Cannonier a durability advantage, but I feel that his once-elite chin has potentially cracked. Both fighters carry significant power for the division.
Rodrigues fights at a higher pace (6.5 vs. 4.7 strikes landed per minute) and has better efficiency stats than Cannonier (+0.5 to -0.3 differential per minute), albeit in shorter fights and against lesser competition.
Still, he's much more open defensively (51% striking defense vs. 56% for Cannonier) — standing upright and lingering in the pocket after throwing power shots, leaving himself open to counters. Robocop can absorb and fight through significant damage — winning one bout with one of the most heinous cuts I've ever seen on a human being. Still, unless Rodrigues proactively grapples, Cannonier will have opportunities to land.
In his recent win over Christian Leroy Duncan, Rodrigues wrestled more readily than we've seen from him in the octagon, shooting twelve times in 15 minutes (landed four takedowns for 8:20 of control), compared to 23 attempts in about 64 minutes worth of fight time in other bouts.
Robocop has only spent one-third of his cage time grappling but has controlled 80% of those minutes; conversely, Cannonier has spent 22% of his cage time grappling, but 63% of those minutes were spent getting controlled by opponents.
Cannonier is not a particularly technical wrestler or grappler and doesn't have great takedown defense (denied 40 of 64, 62% career) either. However, he excels at using his strength to explode back to his feet after completed attempts, and he rarely spends substantial time on bottom against opponents.
Rodrigues excels at getting to the back against his opponents, but he's continually lost control of his opposition while attempting to transition to different positions on the mat. As a result, even if Rodrigues lands takedowns, I don't expect him to maintain the position for particularly long stretches. Still, those takedown attempts should create openings for Rodrigues to land strikes on the feet, too, as he begins to fake shots and waits for Cannonier to drop his hands later in the fight.
Rodrigues is the younger, more well-rounded fighter who maintains full grappling upside in this matchup, justifying his favoritism. Cannonier has five-round experience and a more diverse arsenal of strikes, but his declining cardio and durability point toward relatively equal finishing ability and minute-winning upside on either end of the striking matchup.
Cannonier vs. Rodrigues Prediction
I projected Gregory Rodrigues as a -232 favorite (69.9% implied) in this fight, and I don't project value on either side of the moneyline. I would consider betting Rodrigues on the moneyline at about -210 (67.7% implied) or better, more than a two percent edge compared to my projected price.
I do project slight value on the total, however, setting the fight to reach a decision nearly 34% of the time (+197 implied odds), compared to a divisional average of around 38% (+163 implied odds) and listed odds as high as +250 (28.6% implied).
Moreover, I project a slight edge on either fighter to win by decision, setting Rodrigues at +377 and Cannonier at +691 (listed at +500 at DraftKings and +700 at BetRivers, respectively).
While Cannonier's chin may be shot, I foresee a slower-paced fight in which he continues to play the range game and attempts to outpoint Rodrigues. At the same time, Rodrigues will look to conserve his gas tank for his first potential test in the championship rounds.
I'd lean toward the Over 2.5 Rounds (-108) but prefer the distance prop at +250 or better and Rodrigues by decision at +500.
Sean's Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (+250 at DraftKings) | Gregory Rodrigues wins by Decision (+500 at DraftKings)
