Jessica Andrade vs. Cynthia Calvillo Odds
The UFC 266 main card opens with a women's flyweight matchup featuring the No. 1-ranked contender in the division, Jessica Andrade, and No. 5-ranked Cynthia Calvillo.
Both women are coming off a loss in their most recent fights and both hope to get a shot at the champion Valentina Shevchenko, who is defending her title in the co-main event.
Below I preview the betting odds and break down the matchup for Saturday's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can also check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
| Andrade | Calvillo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-9 | 9-2-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:06 | 13:32 |
| Height | 5'1" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 62" | 64" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/25/91 | 7/13/87 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.15 | 4.18 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.20 | 3.52 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 67% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.97 | 1.85 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 44% |
| TD Def | 66% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 1.1 |
I fully expected to back Andrade before diving into this fight, but I came out on the other side of it backing Calvillo because her decision prop offers substantial value.
While Andrade has big advantages in aggression and power, in addition to excellent wrestling (2.97 takedowns per 15 minutes, 55% accuracy), and superior striking metrics (+0.95 to +0.66 strike differential), Calvillo has the height (+3 inches), reach (+2 inches), and offensive grappling of her own (1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes, 44% accuracy) to trouble Andrade.
The Brazilian typically doesn't spend much time being controlled (Valentina Shevchenko had to take her down seven times before finishing her), but Calvillo has the skillset to do just that and she should be able to use her length to work off of her jab from the outside.
While Andrade is the far better, and more powerful striker in the pocket, she's the one who needs to close that distance, whereupon Calvillo may immediately look to shoot for a takedown.
Andrade vs. Calvillo Pick
Andrade offers significantly higher finishing upside on the feet, and is much more likely to win this fight violently. If Calvillo cannot secure takedowns, she’s very likely to lose this fight by knockout. That factor alone makes betting on the underdog side uncomfortable.
Still, Calvillo has an opportunity to outpoint her opponent with volume and control time, and I cannot pass up the opportunity to play her juicy decision prop since the minute-winning could be relatively even here.
I don’t project value on either side of the moneyline or the total, but I did project Calvillo’s odds to win by decision at +340, and I would play that prop at +350 or better, and FanDuel currently has the best line.
The Pick: Cynthia Calvillo wins by Decision (+490, 0.5u)
