Jim Miller vs. Donald Cerrone Odds
The two winningest fighters in UFC history will meet on Saturday's UFC 276 preliminary card when Jim Miller tangles with Donald Cerrone.
The winner of the welterweight belt will earn UFC win No. 24. Currently, both fighters share the UFC record, along with heavyweight Andrei Arlovski, with 23 victories each.
Miller and Cerrone are both likely reaching the end of their careers. But in this clash of vets and fan favorites, who still has something left in the tank?
Let's break down both sides of the fight and find some betting value in this veteran matchup. And for more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Miller | Cerrone | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 34-16 | 36-16 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:47 | 9:44 |
| Height | 5'8" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 73" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/30/83 | 5/29/83 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.8 | 4.4 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.9 | 4.5 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg. | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| TD Acc | 43% | 33% |
| TD Def | 47% | 74% |
| Submission Avg | 1.8 | 1.2 |
I'm curious about the drastic shift in odds from Cerrone's previously scheduled matchup against Joe Lauzon and his fight on Saturday with Jim Miller.
Cerrone was listed at -210 for the first Lauzon bout, -172 the second time it was scheduled, and now has flipped to a +180 underdog against Miller.
While cutting weight twice within a short time isn't great for his health, Saturday's fight will take place at 170, which suits the larger Cerrone (5" taller, 2" of reach) better than Miller.
Miller has been much more active than Lauzon and is coming off of a pair of knockout wins against Erick Gonzalez and Nikolas Motta, in which his boxing looked excellent.
And Cerrone is reaching the end of his career, having lost five of his past six fights, and four by way of knockout.
That said, like Lauzon, Miller has never shown particularly great cardio and tends to be a fast starter, while Cerrone is a slow starter who gets better the longer his fights go.
Miller vs. Cerrone Pick
I bet Lauzon to win in Round 1 against Cerrone and considered doing the same here with Miller; however, the price on Miller's props is less than half of what Lauzon's odds were.
As a result, I had to flip my opinion to a degree and look to bet on the Cerrone side after the significant odds adjustment. If Miller doesn't finish "Cowboy" early, I would likely favor the underdog in the final two rounds of the fight.
Cerrone is the bigger man and the superior kickboxer (historically). If he's entirely shot at this point of his career, so be it. However, he didn't look terrible in an extended fight with Niko Price; I suspect he still has some competitive skill left if Miller can't put him away early.
While I would lean toward the Cerrone side of the moneyline currently, I suspect that you'll find a much better live price on "Cowboy" after Round 1.
While I don't see value on either side of the total, Cerrone to win by decision (projected +396, listed +550 at DraftKings) caught my attention since I would likely favor him to win the second and third rounds of the fight.
However, considering the potential that he's shot, I kept my allocation small.
The Picks: Donald Cerrone wins by Decision (+550, 0.1u) at DraftKings | Donald Cerrone Live after Round 1
