Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato is undoubtedly one of the more volatile matchups at UFC 312.
After flirting with retirement, Crute makes his returns in front of his home crowd looking to put his four fight losing streak in the rearview mirror. However, Bellato will be looking to play spoiler, adding another exciting moment to his resume.
Here's my Crute vs. Bellato prediction.
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato UFC 312 Odds
| Crute Odds | +130 |
| Bellato Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds -160/+124 |
| Location | Qudos Bank Arena | Sydney, Australia |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 312 odds via DraftKings as of Thursday Night. Bet on UFC 312 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Crute | Bellato | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-4-1 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:53 | 9:13 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/4/1996 | 2/5/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.68 | 6.47 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 61% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.04 | 5.09 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.84 | 1.09 |
| TD Acc | 57% | 29% |
| TD Def | 60% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 2.0 | 0.5 |
Jimmy Crute hasn’t won a fight in more than four years. The level of volatility he brings into the octagon each time he enters is rather alarming when looking back over his career and simply digesting all of the outcomes. Crute has fought some of the top competition the light heavyweight division has had to offer, with mixed results.
At his peak, he was able to implement a wrestling-based attack that could drag men into deep waters, threatening submissions until the final bell. Most recently, he was being submitted by a fighter more known for his striking than his submission game in Alonzo Menifield.
The grappling upside with Crute remains, assuming he's motivated to put on a good performance in front of his home crowd. Crute averages an astounding 4.8 takedowns per 15 minutes over the course of his UFC career.
Rodolfo Bellato has certainly never been in the cage with a wrestler the level of Crute, and it is pretty easy to make a case that Bellato has only really been in there with one UFC-caliber fighter, Vitor Petrino, who he has fought twice, being finished in both matchups.
Bellato will bring excitement into the octagon whenever it is his turn to showcase his skills. He is a brawler by nature but may not have the durability to back it up. He is also capable of aggressively attacking with submissions from any and all positions on the mat. Crute may be the more experienced grappler, but it’s difficult to feel confident he won’t get caught in a submission, given his recent form.
All things considered, Crute can and will dictate where this fight plays out. If you are looking to right the ship with your career, you will go back to your bread and butter. Bellato will get taken down in round one and that alone swings the advantage to the veteran Crute. There are still plenty of questions to be answered regarding Rodolfo Bellato, and I am willing to lean into the volatility here by simply taking the value and backing the one thing I know will happen in this bout.
Crute vs. Bellato Prediction, Pick
If and when Crute finds himself in a top position, there are many ways for him to get his hand raised.
I expect him to be more measured in his approach on the ground, as the threat of submission will be at the forefront of his mind. Crute may smother Bellato on the mat, cruising to a decision victory, or he may land some damaging ground and pound en route to exposing the Brazilian's lack of durability — the Crute money line covers all bases.
John's Pick: Jimmy Crute +135 (Caesars)
