Joaquin Buckley vs. Colby Covington Pick, Prediction, Odds for UFC Tampa on Saturday, December 14

Check out the Joaquin Buckley vs. Colby Covington pick for UFC Tampa on Saturday, December 14, with my betting preview and breakdown.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Colby Covington Odds

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida, for a 13-fight card featuring an important welterweight showdown between former interim champion and current No. 6 contender Colby Covington and No. 9 ranked Joaquin Buckley.

Covington enters his eighth consecutive main event or five-round fight but has been winless since March of 2022 and hasn't competed since December of last year in a relatively one-sided championship loss against Leon Edwards.

Buckley is 10-4 in the promotion and is on a five-fight winning streak since moving back to welterweight in May of 2023. Saturday's bout will mark his first career main event or five-round test.

Will "New Mansa" continue his winning streak and ascend toward title contention, or can "Chaos" Covington re-assert himself among the upper echelon of the 170-pound division? Here's my Buckley vs. Covington pick and prediction.

Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape

Buckley is the longer (4" reach advantage), more powerful, and younger athlete. However, Covington is the more technical fighter and expected to have a clear cardio advantage in the fourth and fifth rounds, especially if he can force Buckley to grapple as often as possible in the first 15 minutes of the fight.

Cage rust – and declining athleticism – could catch up to the 36-year-old. For a cardio-oriented wrestler, Covington didn't grapple as proactively against Edwards (one takedown attempt through the first two rounds) as he did in his prior wins against Jorge Masdival, Tyron Woodley, Robbie Lawler, and Rafael dos Anjos.

Joaquin has been the far more active fighter, registering eight fights since Covington's most recent wins and scoring three wins since Colby's most recent octagon appearance. I expect him to win early minutes and to have chances to close the show against a durable but aging former title contender.

Still, I typically lean toward grappling upside at plus money and prefer to bet on fighters with proven five-round cardio against opponents displaying the depth of their championship gas tanks for the first time. Covington did his best work late in the fight against Leon Edwards and his rematch with Kamaru Usman.

Colby has averaged 5.4 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance throughout his career and won 88 of 184 (47.8%) combined takedown attempts (offensive and defensive) across 16 UFC bouts.

Buckley (who has won 55.2% of all takedown attempts) is well-rounded, with similar efficiency stats as Covington. Still, he's been able to mix in his wrestling offensively against strikers and hasn't needed to defend many grappling-heavy opponents at the UFC level.

Additionally, Covington has controlled 94% of grappling positions (47% of his fight time), while Buckley has only controlled 65% (22%).

Furthermore, Covington has proven to be the more efficient and high-volume distance striker against better competition. He outlands his opponents by +1.2 strikes per minute compared to +0.5 for Buckley (5.9 vs. 3.8 landed per minute).

Buckley should land the more damaging shots, but Covington wouldn't be outclassed in a distance-striking match. However, he needs to limit those exchanges as much as possible and force Buckley to grapple — whether by landing takedowns or pushing his opponent up against the fence. The more Covington can make Buckley work early, the better his chances of winning later in the fight.

I don't necessarily expect Covington to land takedowns — or consolidate top position for long stretches — when Buckley is fresh. Still, Buckley has relied upon landing takedowns of his own to win minutes (and rest from the top position) in his recent decision wins; that path isn't available to him here against a superior wrestler.

Colby's win condition generally correlates with the Overs, or the fight to reach a decision (projected as 75% of his win condition). In contrast, a Buckley win correlates more directly with the under or finish props (projected as 55% of his win condition); and leads to another potential highlight on his record:

The fight is currently favored to reach a decision (best price -120 at FanDuel, market as high as -138 as of writing), and the peak price on Covington may not come until after Round 1 or Round 2; after a potential quick start for Buckley. Search for a live bet anytime after Round 1.

Covington should be able to better mix his striking and grappling in this fight, and I favor his minute-winning down the stretch. His performance in the back half of the Edwards fight was encouraging, and his cardio remains among the elite in promotional history.

Buckley vs. Covington Pick, Prediction

I projected Joaquin Buckley as a -189 favorite (65.3% implied) in this matchup, and I would bet Colby Covington (projected +189, 34.7% implied) at +200 (33.3% implied) or better.

However, you might find a better price on Covington live after Round 1 or 2 as this is Colby's eighth consecutive five-round fight and Buckley's first career five-rounder.

I expect the fight to reach a decision 55% of the time (-124 implied odds) and would bet the distance prop to -120.

I show correlated value on Covington to win by decision (projected +285, listed +380) and his point spread (+9.5, -115) where available. I'll include the former in a round-robin.

Sean's Pick:

• Colby Covington (+235 at FanDuel); bet to +200
• Colby Covington +9.5 Points (-115 at DraftKings); bet to -125
• Colby Covington Live anytime after Round 1
• Fight Goes to Decision (-120 at FanDuel); bet to -125