Jordan Wright vs. Bruno Silva Odds
Bruno Silva goes for his third win in as many UFC fights in the opening primetime prelim at UFC 269 against Jordan Wright. Silva has two straight finishes to begin his career in UFC and faces a tough test in Wright, who is 2-1 in the promotion with a pair of TKO finishes.
Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Wright | Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-1 (1 NC) | 21-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 2:08 | 8:40 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 186 lbs. | 186 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/7/91 | 7/13/89 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.13 | 5.13 |
| SS Accuracy | 60% | 59% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 7.49 | 1.96 |
| SS Defense | 39% | 37% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 100% | 68% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
This middleweight matchup is the likeliest fight to end in a finish on Saturday, both per my projections (-509) and listed odds (-650).
Wright has never been past the six-minute mark in his career, while Silva has seen 24 of his 27 fights ends inside the distance.
"The Beverly Hills Ninja" is more of a glass cannon than Muniz — who I mentioned in the fight before this one — he comes forward with reckless abandon, closes his eyes, and throws heat, despite a lack of durability and poor reactions when he takes damage.
I'm not exceptionally high on Silva. He offers minimal resistance to takedowns and doesn't possess any technique, but thrives on durability, physicality, and cardio. That might be more than enough to defeat Jordan Wright, but I'm not sure he can justify his price tag.
Wright vs. Silva Pick
I projected Wright around +254, and I'm interested in a small taste of his moneyline. Wright by finish (listed +425) or to win in Round 1 (+800) might encompass more of his win condition and would require reduced risk on a wager. And Wright by submission (+1000) is a worthy dart throw, considering Silva has never been knocked out.
Lastly, the Under 1.5 Rounds might be the best approach for the total given Wright's fight history and relentless pacing.
I expect Wright to put it on Silva early and create opportunities for a high variance outcome.
The Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (-170)
