Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige Odds
| Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET | |
| ESPN+ | |
There is an argument to be made that some of these prelim fights should be on the PPV main card. Perhaps no bout is more deserving than the featured prelim between Josh Emmett and Dan Ige.
Emmett returns after an 18-month layoff due to a brutal torn ACL that occurred 15 seconds into his fight with Shane Burgos. Prior to his injury, Emmett featured some of the most exciting power in the game today.
Ige, meanwhile, has lost two of his last three fights to Calvin Kattar and “The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung. Between those losses was an impressive 22-second win over Gavin Tucker, but Ige is looking to build off a May 2020 win over Edson Barboza that seemed like it was going to catapult him toward the top of the 145-pound division.
Which fighter will gain an edge over his opponent in this highly anticipated fight? Let's break down the UFC 269 featured prelim.
Tale of the Tape
| Emmett | Ige | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-2 | 15-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:39 | 12:48 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145.5 lbs. | 146 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/4/85 | 8/6/91 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.32 | 3.82 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.02 | 3.41 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.43 | 1.38 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 25% |
| TD Def | 50% | 55% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.4 |
Emmett has scary power for a featherweight. He can hit his opponent with either hand and end a fight in a flash. He is also battle-tested in wars, as he showcased in his bludgeoning of Burgos in the third round last time out.
One shot is all it takes 👊
[ @JoshEmmettUFC | #UFC269 | Saturday | Live on ESPN+ PPV: https://t.co/bN0K8eAW0O ] pic.twitter.com/nfCCZj1o5q
— UFC (@ufc) December 6, 2021
In striking exchanges, Ige will need to tread extremely lightly or avoid them altogether. Emmett's takedown defense has not been tested in a long time. The last time that someone attempted to get him to the mat was in 2017.
Overall, he has been taken down just four times in nine fights. It is likely that fighters avoided shooting for takedowns in fear of getting clipped by a punch and put unconscious. Ige is not an elite wrestler by any means, but does average just over a takedown per 15 minutes according to UFC Stats.
Moreover, Ige focuses on landing leg kicks, which is always a recommended technique in the UFC, but will be even more important to do against Emmett. Emmett blew out his knee against Burgos last time out and had complications that delayed his return from the injury.
He can be vulnerable to getting his legs chopped at especially after that leg injury that forced him out for so long. This would prohibit his movement around the octagon and could even limit his power.
How well he can move around in the octagon after his knee injury is the biggest x-factor heading into Saturday's matchup.
Emmett vs. Ige Pick
Emmett's knee injury is certainly a cause for concern against fighters who kick at it nonstop. While Ige does have that skill in his repertoire, he is far from fighters like Jose Aldo or Chris Gutierrez, who have legendary leg kicking strategies.
Additionally, Ige did not inspire much confidence in his last fight against Korean Zombie. He was beaten just about everywhere in that fight, including in grappling exchanges.
Oddly, Emmett opened as a -200 favorite and is slowly dropping as fight night nears. As of writing this, Emmett is down to -145 on DraftKings.
Public money coming in on Ige is confusing and it appears profitable long-term when you fade the public money coming in on the UFC. Sportsbooks know who should be favored and Emmett fits the bill pretty well, even coming off of an injury.
Emmett should be a solid parlay builder this weekend on his moneyline at -155 with the striking volume edge (4.32 significant strikes vs. 3.82), clear power advantage, and even a wrestling advantage.
Furthermore, Emmett is +240 to win the fight inside the distance. Ige has never been finished in his MMA career, which is a cause for concern when betting on this prop.
Nevertheless, Emmett knocking his opponent down in six straight fights is as impressive as it gets and he is better just about everywhere.
The Pick: Emmett -155 | +240 Emmett win's inside the distance
