Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy Odds, Prediction
| Emmett Odds | +260 |
| Murphy Odds | -325 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 Rounds (-160/+124) |
| Location | UFC Apex | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 105 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Vegas 105 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy predictions, picks, and odds for UFC Vegas 105 on Saturday, April 5th.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 13-fight card, featuring an important main event in the featherweight division between unbeaten No. 10 contender Lerone Murphy and No. 8-ranked Josh Emmett.
Emmett, who lost an interim title fight to Yair Rodriguez at UFC 284, returns from a lengthy layoff as a 40-year-old, following a December 2023 knockout win over Bryce Mitchell. Saturday will mark the fifth main event or five round fight of Emmett's UFC tenure; he's 1-3 in those contests, including a split win over Calvin Kattar.
Murphy enters Saturday on a seven-fight winning streak since earning a split draw in his UFC debut against Zubaira Tukhugov. Saturday's main event will mark his second career five-round test; Murphy soundly defeated Edson Barboza in 25 minutes in the APEX last May.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC main event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on Emmett vs. Murphy, who should make their cage walk at approximately 11:15 p.m. ET (8:15 p.m. PT) on ESPN+.
Here's my Emmett vs. Murphy prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Emmett | Murphy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-4 | 15-0-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:56 | 13:42 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/04/1985 | 7/22/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.04 | 4.80 |
| SS Accuracy | 36% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.61 | 2.67 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.91 | 1.78 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 54% |
| TD Def | 46% | 48% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.6 |
Murphy is the taller and longer fighter (3" advantage in both height and reach), seven years younger than Emmett, and a better, faster athlete.
Statistically, Murphy is the more efficient striker, out-landing opponents by 2.8 strikes per minute at distance (+2.13 overall, fourth in divisional history). In contrast, Emmett has a -0.8 differential (albeit against a higher level of competition).
Murphy is a point fighter who manages distance well. He works behind a sharp jab and effective leg kicks. He has shown improved offensive grappling in recent fights, and his cardio checked out over five rounds against Barboza.
Still, Emmett has a significant power advantage, with the most knockdowns (12) and the third-highest knockdown average (1.3 per 15 minutes) in UFC featherweight history (Conor McGregor is first at 2.3).
It only takes one clean right hand for Emmett to close the show – and leave his opponents stiff – and even when he doesn't knock them down or out, his power can scare opponents into a staring contest. Moreover, that power weighs heavily for judges in the APEX, as in Emmett's split decision win over Calvin Kattar, where Kattar out-landed Emmett in three of the five rounds (and 130-107 overall) but lost a split decision, because even Emmett's blocked strikes (that landed on Kattar's guard) created very impactful sound and optics which may have influenced the scoring.
Murphy's defensive striking (60% career) and offensive grappling (averages 1.9 takedowns per five minutes at distance, 49% accuracy, 64% control rate) are the keys to him comfortably winning the fight. He's been knocked down in previous fights—including his last matchup against Dan Ige and his debut against Tukhugov—and has relied upon his offensive grappling to recover and alleviate pressure when he's in trouble.
Emmett comes from a wrestling base and hasn't had to defend many takedowns in his career (he denied just seven of 15 attempts). Still, due to knee/leg injuries, he hasn't grappled offensively much at all either (averages 0.9 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, 38% accuracy); and Murphy (49% takedown defense) has shown a tendency to get stuck on his back against superior or stronger grapplers (turned into a pretzel by Makwan Amirkhani for a round).
Emmett may mix in a takedown to set up his striking, but Murphy seems much more likely to deploy offensive grappling as a significant part of his game plan against an older opponent.
If Murphy (landed four of six takedowns, spent 5:19 in control against Barboza) can't get top time on Emmett – who, like Dan Ige (controlled Murphy for 4:47 to 2:17), has a clear strength/power advantage over Murphy, this could play out as a relatively competitive striking fight, where Murphy lands significantly more volume and output (16.4 attempts,10.4 strikes landed per minute against Barboza), but Emmett has the more impactful moments.
Emmett vs. Murphy Prediction
I projected Lerone Murphy as a -270 favorite (72.9% implied) in this matchup, and don't see value on either side of the moneyline; I would consider betting Emmett at +300 (25% implied) or better on fight day.
I projected the fight to reach a decision 56% of the time (-129 implied odds) near the midpoint of the pricing in that market (listed -150 to reach a decision, +110 to end inside the distance), and I'll pass on betting the total or distance props.
Three-round featherweight fights have gone to decision at roughly a 48% clip in the past three years, but the number climbs to 56% over a more extended sample of main events at 145 pounds (with, generally speaking, better and more durable fighters compared to the divisional average).
I project slight value on Emmett to win by KO/TKO (projected +444, listed +500), and his finish-only moneyline (projected +118, listed +155), and would bet those props down to +475 and +125, respectively. If the fight goes to decision – and Murphy is favored to win by that method (projected +103, listed +100) the finish-only moneyline bet is refunded.
Sean's Pick: Josh Emmett wins by KO/TKO (+500 at Fanatics) | Finish Only Moneyline: Josh Emmett (+155 at Draftkings)
