Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya will face off in the UFC 313 prelims on Saturday, March 8.
Here's my Van vs. Tsuruya prediction.
Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya Odds, Prediction
| Flyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Van Odds | -170 |
| Tsuruya Odds | +142 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-188 / +145) |
Projection: Joshua Van (61.6%)
Saturday's lone Flyweight matchup looks extremely binary as Rei Tsuruya tries to impose his grappling on a slow-starting Josh Van.
Tsuruya is the bigger man (1" taller, 3" reach advantage) but offers very little damage optics for judges; his striking is extremely green, and he offers minimal ground and pound. He's reliant on submissions or dominant control time to win fights, but he seems to have an average gas tank and can't sustain his style for more than two rounds.
Van is typically forced to resist his opponents (denied 21 of 26 takedown attempts in the UFC) until he can separate and land strikes in the second half of the fight (+2.8 to -1.4 differential per minute), which is precisely the gameplan he'll need to follow against Tsuruya.
Long odds on Tsuruya by Round 1 submission (+1700) could be worth a poke. Still, I expect Van to flip the fight's momentum after five minutes and pull away down the stretch – if not finish the fight late after slowing Tsuruya with body combinations.
Target Van Live after Round 1, but consider his odds to win in Round 2 (+900), Round 3 (+1100), by decision (projected +154, listed +165) or any iteration of a later Van victory in an SGP from a pre-fight perspective.
Bets
- Same Game Parlay (SGP): Joshua Van & Over 1.5 Rounds (+110, 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Joshua Van Live after R1
