Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Odds, Prediction
| Gaethje Odds | +136 |
| Fiziev Odds | -162 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-130/+100) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 313 odds via DraftKings as of Thursday. Bet on UFC 313 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev predictions, picks and odds for UFC 313 on Saturday, March 8
The UFC had originally booked Justin Gaethje vs. Dan Hooker as the co-main event at UFC 313, but an injury to Hooker forced that fight to be scrapped. Fortunately, we're getting an equally violent matchup, as Rafael Fiziev makes his return to competition in place of Hooker. This is a rematch of a 2023 bout that saw Gaethje win an extremely close split decision. However, he's installed as an underdog this time around.
Here's my Gaethje vs. Fiziev prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Gaethje | Fiziev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-5 | 12-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:56 | 11:41 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 11/14/1988 | 3/5/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.78 | 4.90 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 7.46 | 4.97 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 40% |
| TD Def | 75% | 89% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
Before we jump in to the styles and abilities of both fighters, it's important to note what both men have been up to since their meeting at UFC 286.
Fiziev's next fight ended early in the second round due to Fiziev suffering a freak knee injury, and he's been out of action in the ensuing 18 months. Typically, I want to fade fighters returning from injury — especially on short notice — as we have no idea how long they've even been training at 100% since the injury.
On the other hand, Gaethje went on to knock out Dustin Poirier later in 2023, before suffering a brutal knockout late in his fight of the year against Max Holloway at UFC 300 last April. While he's had almost a year off, a 36-year-old fighter coming off a bad knockout and openly discussing retirement is also typically a fade signal.
From a technical standpoint, the best point of reference we have is clearly the first fight between the two. Not only does it show how both fighters are likely to operate, but it was also the most recent appearance for Fiziev that didn't end with an injury.
Gaethje and Fiziev are two of the best kickers in the lightweight division, if not the sport as a whole. For Gaethje, that mainly means leg kicks, which allow him to land at range against his typically shorter opponents. Gaethje will then work up the body if he catches his opponents reaching for the leg kicks.
That was exactly how he was able to knockout Poirier with a head kick. Poirier reacted to Gaethje's kick by dropping his lead hand in an attempt to catch a leg kick, but the kick came high and was able to drop Poirier, even through the rear hand block.
However, Fiziev's speed allows him to hop out of range of the leg kicks, which shuts down Gaethje's first level of attack. Gaethje landed "just" eight leg kicks in their first fight, and many of them were partially avoided or deflected by Fiziev.
Fiziev throws a wider variety of kicks, mixing in teep kicks, spinning attacks and more lead/switch kicks than Gaethje. He found some success with those in the first fight against Gaethje, especially when attacking the body.
Both fighters are also willing to exchange hands in the pocket, with Fiziev having a slight speed edge but Gaethje packing more power in his hands. Neither are especially defensively sound — both have taken more significant strikes per minute than they've landed in their UFC careers — making their chins also an important factor.
That's where things get a bit scary for Gaethje considering all the damage he took in his last fight specifically, but throughout his career in general.
Gaethje vs. Fiziev Prediction
The other X factor in this fight is the wrestling of Gaethje. While he's most known for his striking, Gaethje was a D-1 All-American wrestler in college.
In his UFC career, he's attempted just four takedowns across 13 fights. Three of those came against Fiziev, including his only successful takedown. I'd make his odds of repeating that even higher this time around, since he's coming off a bad knockout loss. Gaethje's corner implored him to wrestle after he took some heavy shots from Fiziev in the third round of their fight, which is when Gaethje secured his only UFC takedown to date.
Thus, my first bet on this fight will be Justin Gaethje over 0.5 takedowns, which is +200 at DraftKings. These lines tend to move, but I'd play it down to +160.
The other bet I'm taking is Fiziev by knockout. Gaethje seems to have lost a step since their first fight, and there's reasonable question marks about his chin. If Riziev is back to full strength, he should be able to do enough damage to exploit that.
If Fiziev is still slowed by his knee injury, he's likely not winning anyway, so I prefer his knockout prop rather than laying the juice on his moneyline. Gaethje also took over late, and with Fiziev coming in on short notice he likely needs a somewhat early finish to have a chance.
Billy's Pick: Justin Gaethje Over 0.5 Takedowns +200 (DraftKings) | Fiziev by T/KO +200 (FanDuel/DraftKings) (Half Unit Each)
