Kai Kara-France vs. Cody Garbrandt Odds
| Approx. 10:30 p.m. ET | |
| ESPN PPV | |
Former 135-pound champion Cody Garbrandt makes his flyweight debut at UFC 269 against No. 6-ranked Kai Kara-France.
Garbrandt was originally supposed to face Deiveson Figueiredo for the UFC Flyweight Championship back in November 2020, but he had to pull out of that fight after testing positive for COVID-19 during his camp. He returned to 135 pounds and lost to Rob Font back in April.
Kara-France, meanwhile, got an impressive knockout win over Rogerio Bontorin back in March, which puts him at 5-2 in the UFC. The training partner of Israel Adesanya has only lost to Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval since his debut for the promotion.
Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Kara-France | Garbrandt | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-9 (1 NC) | 12-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:15 | 10:25 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 126 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/26/93 | 7/7/91 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.02 | 3.17 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 38% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.84 | 4.14 |
| SS Defense | 66% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.53 | 1.05 |
| TD Acc | 23% | 32% |
| TD Def | 86% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Garbrandt is finally moving down to flyweight after losing four of five fights since winning the bantamweight title in 2016.
Kara-France represents a step down in competition from Garbrandt's recent opponents. Though the Kiwi will hold a four-inch reach advantage in his fight, he'll have to overcome a four-inch height discrepancy and significant difference in power.
On paper, Kara-France has the superior striking metrics (+1.18 to -0.97 differential, +6% combined accuracy and defense) and while Garbrandt is likely the better striker, he looked lost against Rob Font's jab.
Kara-France loves to duck into the pocket and throw shots upstairs. Garbrandt will look to counter with big hooks, and if he connects, it could be lights out in a hurry. He was a big hitter for 135 and could be a menace at 125.
Kara-France has been hurt in multiple fights. Likewise, Garbrandt's durability was already a concern and could get worse after cutting down further in weight.
Kara-France will likely win minutes on the feet with activity until getting caught with a power shot. However, if Garbrandt proactively wrestles (1.05 takedowns per 15 minutes, 32% accuracy), he should have a definitive grappling advantage.
Kara-France vs. Garbrandt Pick
Ultimately, this is probably an excellent buy-low spot on Garbrandt. He's taking a serious step down in competition while likely moving to the appropriate weight class, and he is superior everywhere except striking volume and Fight IQ.
Garbrandt will likely lean into pocket exchanges and create a high variance situation, instead of taking a more measured approach.
That said, I don't show value on any moneyline, total, or prop for this fight, and I'm going to pass from a betting perspective.
The Pick: No Bet
For the rest of my betting card, check out my breakdown of the entire slate here.
