King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy Odds, Prediction
| Green Odds | +330 |
| Ruffy Odds | -425 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (-166/+130) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 313 odds via DraftKings as of Thursday. Bet on UFC 313 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy predictions, picks, and odds for UFC 313 on Saturday, March 8
There are only a handful of up and coming prospects with more hype behind them than Mauricio Ruffy. His striking prowess and flashy style has conjured up comparisons that may be a bit far-fetched at this point, but the UFC knows what they have in Ruffy. That's why he finds himself on the main card for UFC 313. However, his opponent King Green, ten years the elder, will provide the toughest test of Ruffy’s career.
Here's my Green vs. Ruffy prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Green | Ruffy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 32-16-1 | 11-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:08 | 11:29 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/9/1986 | 6/17/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.43 | 4.70 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 59% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.73 | 4.76 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.23 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 0% |
| TD Def | 74% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Ruffy has 11 victories in his MMA career, and 10 of those were by knockout. In fact, only twice in his career has the 3rd round even been necessary, with one of those extended fights coming back in November against James Llontop.
Llontop is a volume striker with excellent durability, able to somehow remain standing after getting stung by counter shots that would have put away most men. The finish never materialized for Ruffy, and it undoubtedly rubbed a little bit of the shine off his name heading into UFC 313.
Oddsmakers still realize it is going to be a tall task for King Green to outstrike the younger, faster athlete in Ruffy. Ruffy opened as a -600 favorite before sharp bettors came in to back the experienced veteran Green at a huge underdog price. Green’s slippery defensive head movements, fast hands, and striking accuracy is a problem for any lightweight that chooses to keep the fight standing for the duration of the bout.
I am not surprised bettors felt the opening line was disrespectful for someone in Green who will get the exact fight he wants on Saturday night.
The issue with backing Green is age and durability. He is going to be in extreme danger from the opening bell. King Green doesn’t exactly fight with technical prowess and a high guard, opting to keep his hands low, unleashing bursts of karate-style attacks, and oftentimes creating wild exchanges with his opponent.
This is a recipe for disaster against Mauricio Ruffy. Ruffy has a very strong jab and crisp, stinging two punch combinations. Landing just 4.7 significant strikes per minute, he is not going to overwhelm you with volume, but if you make a mistake against him, the moments get reactions from the crowd at minimum, and at maximum you are laying on the canvas.
Green vs. Ruffy Prediction
A smart man once told me not to lay chalk on one single path to victory when betting MMA, but this is too good of a spot to pass up. If Ruffy had put away Llontop by KO a few months ago, his KO/TKO line would be closer to -250 than the current market of -120.
Green’s style, combined with his waning durability, make for the perfect showcase to open the pay-pay-view with a top prospect getting a spectacular knockout win.
Over Green’s last seven bouts, he has really only faced two power punchers in Drew Dober and Jalin Turner, both of whom knocked him out within the first 8 minutes of the fight.
John's Pick: Play Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO -120 (FanDuel)
