Updated Kyler Phillips vs. Marcelo Rojo Odds
Rising Bantamweight Kyler Phillips will take on Marcelo Rojo at UFC 271 Saturday night. Both fighters are looking to bounce back after losses in their previous fights — Phillips dropped a closed decision in July while Rojo was knocked out last March.
Which side has more value in this scrap? I break down how the two match up and how I plan to be this fight below.
Tale of the Tape
| Phillips | Rojo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-2 | 16-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:18 | 14:31 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/12/95 | 7/2/88 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.20 | 5.10 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 36% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.15 | 7.30 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.20 | 1.03 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 50% |
| TD Def | 69% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Rojo made a short-notice debut, up a weight class, against Charles Jourdain last March (closed +230) — and his Bantamweight debut against Kyler Phillips won't be any easier.
One thing Rojo does have to go for him is size parity – both men are massive Bantamweights, and Phillips is more accustomed to having a reach advantage (3 inches against Raulian Paiva, 5 inches against Song Yadong, 1 inch against both Cameron Else and Gabriel Silva).
Rojo took it to Jourdain early and displayed some excellent offensive skills. He's also extremely tough, and seems to hang around even when it looks like he's about to go out. But he's subpar defensively — both in terms of his striking and grappling — and he'll have a much more difficult time getting hands-on Phillips than he did with Jourdain, who is happy to oblige in a war.
Phillips should be able to use his wrestling (3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes, 55% accuracy) to dictate where the fight takes place, but "The Matrix" is a bit of a showman who like to show off his flashy striking, and I doubt that he immediately takes Rojo down and looks for a submission, which would be his optimal game plan.
Phillips did gas out in his last fight against Paiva, but – like Carlos Ulberg – that was the product of a fighter hunting for a finish and being unable to finish the job; Phillips was more composed and his cardio help up well in the Yadong fight.
Phillips vs. Rojo Pick
If Phillips is happy to oblige a standup battle, it opens a path to victory for Rojo; but if Phillips decides to don the wrestling singlet, he should be able to wear Rojo down, and eventually submit him.
I show slight value on Phillips' moneyline (projected 81.9%, or -452 implied) and I would utilize him as a parlay piece.
However, I also show value on Phillips to win by submission (projected +388, listed +550 at FanDuel), and I'll place a small wager on that prop; but his odds to win inside the distance (projected -135, listed -150) are a touch inflated given Rojo's durability.
The Pick: Kyler Phillips wins by Submission (+550)
