Kyung Ho Kang vs. Batgerel Danaa Odds
Two Bantamweights will kick off the televised prelims when Kyung Ho Kang and Batgerel Danaa meet in the octagon at UFC 275. Both men are coming off losses in their most recent fights and are looking bounce back Saturday.
Danaa is a slight favorite in this fight but BetMGM doesn't have a listed total for the rounds. However, the odds the fight goes the distance are +105 compared to -135 that it ends inside the distance.
Below I preview the matchup and my pick based on my projections for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Kang | Batgerel | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-9 (1 NC) | 12-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:47 | 5:41 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/9/87 | 4/4/89 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.56 | 5.66 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 37% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.36 | 3.45 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg. | 2.23 | 0.53 |
| TD Acc | 59% | 50% |
| TD Def | 68% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.0 |
Danaa is returning to the octagon after sustaining a knockout loss on March 26, and I don't love a quick turnaround for any fighter coming off of a violent loss.
The Mongolian fighter carries a ton of power but loses effectiveness after the first round. Danaa may have difficulty hurting Kang, whose only TKO loss came via soccer kicks in his third-career fight in 2008.
If "Mr. Perfect" can weather the early storm from Danaa, he should begin to take over the fight in the final two frames. While he doesn't carry significant power, Kang is the taller and longer fighter (two inches of height, three inches of reach), the more technical striker, and possesses all the grappling upside.
Since his debut loss to Alateng Heili, Danaa hasn't faced a single takedown attempt. Kang is at his best when fighting behind his range weapons and changing levels occasionally (2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, 59% accuracy).
Kang vs. Danaa Pick
I expect Danaa to win the first round at a decent clip, but the first round should be his best round before Kang starts to take over this fight. While you could wait for a live entry on Kang after Round 1, I'm willing to bet him at +115 or better pre-fight (projected +110).
Kang by decision (projected +201, listed +225 at DraftKings) could offer the most value from a prop perspective. Still, I will stick with Kang's moneyline and look to add to that position live.
The Pick: Kyung-ho Kang (+115)
