Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady, Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC London

On Saturday, the UFC will return to the O2 Arena in London, England, for a 13-fight card, featuring a critical showdown in the welterweight division between former champion, No. 1 contender, and Birmingham native Leon Edwards against No. 5-ranked Sean Brady, an American grappler.

Check out my Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady predictions, picks and odds for UFC London on Saturday, March 22.

Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady Odds, Prediction

Edwards will return to the Octagon for the first time since losing welterweight gold last July, which ended a 13-fight unbeaten streak, including a title fight win over Kamaru Usman and defenses against Usman and Colby Covington. Saturday's bout will mark his eighth consecutive main event or five-round fight.

Brady will test a championship-length bout for the second time in the UFC, coming off his main event win over Gilbert Burns. He also went to the fourth round while defending a Cage Fury FC title in 2019. The Philadelphia native is 7-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming via TKO against the current champion, Belal Muhammad.

Edwards – who has never been finished – looked flat in his loss to Belal and later complained about the start time (5 a.m. local body clock), but he still won the third and fifth rounds on two of the three scorecards.

Here's my Edwards vs. Brady prediction.

Tale of the Tape

I suspect that the price point on Brady is more accurate for a three-round fight than a five-round fight, considering he imposes a similar stylistic matchup for Edwards as Belal Muhammad did, but with lesser durability or cardio than the current champion.

Edwards dictated the pace in the first fight against Belal – backing his opponent up in the APEX and applying pressure. However, Belal was on the front foot much more in the rematch and mixed a ton of striking volume (111 attempts from distance) with takedown attempts (13 across 25 minutes) to nullify Leon's offense.

If Brady succeeds in this fight, he will win minutes from the outset by landing takedowns and finding a submission, consolidating position, or merely bullying Edwards against the fence with superior strength and cage wrestling. The question is whether he can sustain that style into the championship rounds.

The two fighters have spent about the same amount of their octagon time grappling (46% for Edwards, 47% for Brady). However, Brady has controlled 89% of those positions, compared to 46% for Edwards. Brady averages 4.2 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance (52% accuracy), and he's a powerful wrestler with an excellent top game. However, I'd still expect Edwards to be more competitive in the grappling than Brady is in the striking.

While Edwards has shown significant improvements in takedown defense throughout his career (permitted 6/13 attempts, 10:50 control against Usman in the first fight, 5/12, 10:36 control in the second fight, and 4/15, 5:03 control in the third), his offensive grappling has also improved (landed two takedowns and controlled Belal for 7:11), and he remains one of the best clinch fighters in the sport; dominating wrist control and framing opponents up with knees and elbows, or tripping them from close range.

Edwards is typically a low-output striker (3.8 landed per minute at distance, +0.5 differential per minute), and, by the numbers, Brady is both more efficient and offers more output (6.6 landed per minute at distance, +1.4 differential); still, those stats have come against highly different levels and styles of competition.

Edwards is far quicker and more technical, with vastly superior footwork to Brady. Unfortunately, however he often gets into staring contests with opponents (mainly when they offer a wrestling threat) and refuses to let his hands go while waiting for the perfect setup to snipe his opposition. That said, he's the much more durable fighter in this contest, with a better gas tank.

The longer this fight goes, the more success I'd expect Edwards (career 66% takedown defense, denied 77 of 117 attempts) to have in denying Brady's entries; he knows how to resist superior grapplers and keep himself in the fight, where he can capitalize with better cardio down the stretch.

Brady enters off a career-best effort over Gilbert Burns (202 distance strike attempts, 17 takedown attempts), where he showed improved striking and cardio – and I do feel that he's fine when he's dictating. Still, Brady does start to fade when he faces adversity. Edwards carries significantly more power than Belal or Michael Chiesa – both of whom hurt Brady badly on the feet after anti-grappling – and I suspect you may find the best price live on the underdog after Edwards merely resists for five to ten minutes.

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Edwards vs. Brady Prediction

I projected Sean Brady as a 54% favorite (-118 implied odds) in this matchup and would bump that percentage higher in a three-round fight. However, added time favors the underdog, Leon Edwards, who has better cardio and will enter his eighth consecutive five-round fight.

Bet Edwards on the moneyline to +125 (44.4% implied) pre-fight, and wait to add more in the live market at a better price anytime after Round 1; Brady's success should be frontloaded to the early rounds.

Additionally, I show an edge on Edwards to win by KO/TKO (projected +559, listed +600), which I'd take down to +600 or include on round-robin tickets. Furthermore, I project an edge on Edwards in the finish-only market (projected +101, listed +150 at DraftKings), which you can bet down to +110, and I'm intrigued by his longshot odds to win via attritional finish in Round 4 (+3100) or Round.5 (+3700).

Despite the reasonably binary nature of this stylistic matchup, I don't project any value concerning the total (projected -180 to go to decision, listed -185 or higher).

Sean's Pick: Leon Edwards (+140 at Caesars) | Edwards wins by KO/TKO (+600)