UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, Pick & Prediction for Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez: 2 Bets With +1400 KO Prop (Saturday, August 3)

Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez Odds

Here's the latest on the Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez odds for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, August 3, with our expert pick and prediction.

Two popular strawweight fighters meet in an interesting clash of styles on the UFC Abu Dhabi main card this afternoon.

Multiple-time jiu-jitsu world champion (with and without the gi) Mackenzie Dern has fallen on a bit of a hard time in her MMA career, going 1-3 in her past four UFC fights.

Wrestler and judoka Loopy Godinez saw her four-fight winning streak snapped in her last bout, a close decision loss to Virna Jandiroba that could've gone her way.

Will this fight settle the "wrestling vs. jiu-jitsu" debate that rages on mats across the world? Probably not. But it could still be a fun one for fans of grappling – or maybe not.

Tale of the Tape

Dern is pretty easily the most credentialed female grappler ever to set foot in the UFC. She has more gold medals in international black belt competition than I care to count. The daughter of well-known competitor Wellington "Megaton" Dias, she's been training since age 3 and received her black belt at 19.

Point is, she's a problem for anybody on the mat – if she can get it there. Unlike the latest wave of women grapplers beginning to join the UFC, Dern has no solid wrestling base, with a pitiful 15% takedown accuracy and disappointing 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes.

That's not a death sentence in and of itself. We've seen plenty of jiu-jitsu-based fighters with limited wrestling make it work. Former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and all-time great Anderson Silva, among others, come to mind.

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The difference is both of those fighters have elite striking skills, which forces their opponents to pick their poison: striking or submissions. The same can't be said of Dern.

Dern has had her moments on the feet, of course, with the high water mark probably her win over Angela Hill. Dern dropped Hill in the first round en route to a unanimous decision win.

However, she regressed notably after that, and she had a well-publicized split with her boxing coach, Jason Perillo. She's been dropped five times across her last two fights, though finished in only one of the two. She's now back with Perillo, though it remains to be seen how much good that does with just one training camp.

We'll probably find out on Saturday, when she takes on an excellent wrestler in Godinez. Her 84% takedown defense stands out, as does her 3.04 takedown average. Wrestling is a family affair for the Godinezs; her younger sister is representing team Canada in wrestling at the 2024 Summer Olympics.

I don't expect Godinez to use her wrestling offensively against Dern; her submission skills are clearly inferior to Dern's.

Her counter-grappling is very impressive, though, and she makes use of whizzers from a variety of positions to defend takedowns and return to her feet. While she lost the fight against Jandiroba, she defended seven of nine takedowns and arguably won the first two frames.

Godinez should have the better striking.

She pushes a fairly high pace with her boxing, darting in and out of range with multiple-punch combos. The biggest knock on her striking is probably her height and reach – she's short even for the strawweight division.

That requires plenty of movement to get close enough to her opponents to land, then back out to a safe distance.

While she can usually maintain that for a round or two, we've seen her struggle down the stretch in some of her fights.

Dern vs. Godinez Pick

In a lot of ways, I expect this fight to be similar to Godinez's against Jandiroba – with a couple of caveats. Dern is probably more dangerous on the ground than Jandiroba – but with less ability to get it there.

Like in that fight, Godinez should be able to use her defensive wrestling to largely keep the fight standing, with the eventual winner decided by who wins the striking exchanges.

Based on recent results, that certainly favors Godinez. While I worry about her ability to maintain the necessary output, she's much better than Dern at full strength.

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The only exception to that is if the training camp with Perillo has leveled up Dern's ability considerably over the last few months. That seems unlikely, though, especially with Dern also training to compete in a grappling match in a few weeks (originally slated to compete at ADCC, she's since been booked for a superfight in the inaugural Craig Jones Invitational).

Thus, I'm sticking with my call from my UFC Luck Ratings and riding with Godinez. The price has started to come back down after peaking at +115, but it's still plus-money.

I'm also sprinkling a bit on Godinez by knockout at +1400. It would be her first, but I'm concerned with the amount of damage Dern has taken.

The Picks: Loopy Godinez ML +110 (+110 at BetMGM, 0.9u) | Godinez by knockout (+1400 at FanDuel, 0.1u)

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