Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Vegas 103

Check out my Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev predictions, picks, and odds for UFC Vegas 103 on Saturday, March 1.

Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev Odds, Prediction

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, with a 12-fight card featuring a critical flyweight main event and potential title eliminator between No. 6 contender Manel Kape and No. 8-ranked Asu Almabayev.

Kape is 5-3 since joining the promotion in 2021, but he has won five of his last six fights, including three by knockout.

Almabayev, who stepped in on short notice to replace Brandon Royval, is 4-0 since debuting in the UFC in 2023. His most recent victory came against Matheus Nicolau, who previously defeated Kape.

Both fighters have championship-round experience from their regional days; however, Saturday's matchup will mark the first UFC main event—and the first five-round fight—for either of them.

Here's my Kape vs. Almabayev prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Kape is the bigger (1" taller, 3" reach advantage), more powerful man, and the better athlete.

Starboy is an explosive striker—with swift and powerful hands—but he's gotten lulled into staring contests throughout his career, getting outworked at distance by Alexandre Pantoja (trailed 146-91 on distance strike attempts) and refusing to let his hands go against Muhammad Mokaev (Mokaev led 78-48 on attempts).

Almabayev is a particularly low-output striker himself (lands 2.7, absorbs 2.1 strikes per minute at distance; compared to 5.2 and 4.7 for Kape), but he profiles more similarly to fighters like Mokaev and Nicolau—who have beaten Kape by mixing striking and grappling together. Almabayev's wrestling threat could force Kape into another low-output kickboxing match at range, particularly in the early rounds.

In his brief UFC career, Asu has averaged nine takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, completing 18 of those 36 attempts (50%) and spending nearly 32 minutes (~60%) of his 53 minutes of total octagon time in control positions.

Almabayev has spent 63% of his cage time in the UFC grappling—compared to 11% for Kape; still, Kape has spent 73% of that time getting out-grappled and controlled by opponents, whereas Almabayev has controlled his opposition in 95% of positions.

That said, Kape has shown improved takedown defense in his recent fights (he denied five of eight attempts from Mokaev and all ten combined from Bruno Silva and Felipe dos Santos). Still, he's also adept at scrambling back to his feet (while protecting his neck) after permitting them.

It's more difficult for flyweight wrestlers to control opponents on the mat than for fighters in heavier weight classes; still, Kape is particularly strong for the division, and it would be difficult for any flyweight to consolidate top position against him for significant stretches.

Even if Almabayev does land takedowns—and generates control time—I'm not sure that he'll do enough with it to secure the round in his favor. This is precisely the type of striker vs. grappler dynamic where Kape may spend three minutes of a round on his back, return to his feet with a minute left, and land the most impactful strike of the round—potentially stealing the scorecards.

Moreover, I doubt Almabayev can maintain a hectic grappling pace across a 25-minute fight. He does have a five-round decision win from M-1 Global in 2019 (a high-level regional promotion in Russia). Still, Kape should become increasingly more challenging to wrestle as the fight extends, and his power should carry into the championship rounds.

Starboy looked career-best in his last fight against Bruno Silva—an extraordinarily well-rounded and dangerous flyweight. While Almabayev presents a different level of wrestling, Kape has proven himself against fighters with similar abilities and seems poised for title contention.

Manel owns a fourth-round knockout win from 2015, finished his next opponent at 4:59 in the third round, and looked like he was starting to heat up in his third-round win over Silva in December.

My first betting thought was to play Kape to win in Round 4 (+1200) or Round 5 (+1600), but the prices are too short for my liking; I would have bet those at +2000 or higher.

However, I think he's worth live betting at a better price anytime after Round 1. I'd be much more interested in the underdog in a three-round matchup, but it will be difficult for Almabayev to win three clear rounds out of five with his less damaging fighting style.

Kape vs. Almabayev Prediction

I projected Manel Kape as a 67.3% favorite (-205 implied odds) in this matchup, and I don't project value on either side of the moneyline.

However, I do project this fight to reach a decision more than 60% of the time (projected -155), and would bet on the Goes to Decision Prop at -145 (59.2% implied) or better; at just under a two percent edge compared to my projected line.

Moreover, I show correlated value on Kape to win by decision (projected +181, listed +220)—which I'll likely use as the final leg of a round robin.

And to reiterate, I'd bet Kape live anytime after Round 1, but I would note that the best price point may not come until after Round 3.

Sean's Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (-128 at FanDuel) | Manel Kape Live Anytime after Round 1