Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober Odds, Prediction
| Torres Odds | +102 |
| Dober Odds | -122 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (+140/-180) |
| Location | Arena CDMX | Mexico City, Mexico |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Mexico City odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Mexico City with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober predictions, picks and odds for UFC Mexico City on Saturday, March 29
The UFC Mexico City co-main event is a banger of a fight between two powerful lightweights. Drew Dober and Manuel Torres have combined for over four knockdowns per 15 minutes in their UFC careers, with just one of their last 11 fights needing the judges. Does the veteran Dober have one more knockout in him, or will Torres make the hometown crowd happy?
Here's my Torres vs. Dober prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Torres | Dober | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-3 | 27-14 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 2:39 | 8:05 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 70" |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/25/1995 | 10/19/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.17 | 4.39 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.53 | 4.25 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.26 | 0.67 |
| TD Acc | 66% | 17% |
| TD Def | 87% | 55% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 0.1 |
It's rare to see this card placement for two fighters coming off a loss — but it's hard to argue with it either.
Torres was last seen at UFC Noche, where he was knocked out late in the first round by Ignacio Bahamondes. Bahamondes was able to exploit Torres' brawling style, dropping him twice with nearly identical right handed pull counters.
Getting countered is always going to be a concern for Torres, given how heavy and wild most of his shots are. He also fights almost exclusively moving forward, so opponents who are able to withstand the pressure can find opportunities to answer with their own shots.
With that said, the 6'3" Bahamondes was able to execute that game plan in large part because of his length. At 5'10" with a 73" reach, Torres has good length for the division in his own right, and should be able to manage the distance much better against a shorter, stockier fighter like Dober.
That's exactly what Torres did prior to the Bahamondes loss, going 3-0 in his previous UFC fights with three first round finishes. One of those was a submission over Chris Duncan, which looks more impressive in retrospect since Duncan submitted his next two opponents.
While Dober is a capable grappler, he's been consistently beaten on the ground by the division's stronger takedown artists. What that adds up to is a solid skill edge for Torres should he choose to grapple, though that's far from a given.
Dober is the more technical striker, and while not cautious by any stretch he's slightly more defensively sound. Still, he can get sucked into brawls — see his knockout loss to Matt Frevola — and relies on his famously sturdy chin to come out ahead.
However, Dober is now 36 years old, with two KO/TKO losses in his last four fights. While one of those was a cut, that came against a featherweight in Jean Silva. Taking that kind of damage against a smaller fighter is a bad sign as a fighter ages, and while Dober stayed on his feet that fight still put more miles on the tires.
Of course, the flip side to that is Dober's experience. He's been in plenty of extended fights, while Torres has seen just one career decision and no second rounds in the UFC.
That should translate to a cardio edge for Dober should he be able to ride out the initial blitz from Torres. That factor is compounded by this fight being in Mexico City at high elevation, as well as Dober training at altitude in Colorado.
His clearest path to victory is to fight defensively early on, look to counter Torres, and push the pace later in the fight. Dober isn't an especially adept counter puncher as he typically also likes to lead the dance, but the opportunities should be there.
It's also unfair to Torres to say he has bad cardio. He also trains at elevation in Zacatecas, Mexico (elevation 8,000 feet) and the UFC PI in Mexico City. Still, his cardio is at best unproven, and a solid rule of thumb in MMA is that unproven equals underdeveloped more often than not.
Torres vs. Dober Prediction
If this fight involved the Drew Dober of two or three years ago, I would make him a relatively heavy favorite against a brawler like Torres.
It's not, though, and Dober is well on the downside of the age curve with plenty of damage absorbed throughout his UFC career. That makes it hard to trust his ability to withstand the onslaught from Torres, or to break tendency and fight defensively.
I'm also not entirely convinced the Torres is a cardio liability, which removes my desire to be this Round 1 prop.
Instead, I'm playing Torres prefight at +102 via DraftKings. If he has a big first round but doesn't put away Dober, I'll be looking to jump on Dober live as a hedge. Ideally at solidly plus-money, so we can turn a profit regardless of the eventual winner.
Billy's Pick: Manuel Torres +102 (DraftKings) | Dober Live at Plus-Money if Available
