On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for an important middleweight main event between No. 8 ranked contender Marvin "The Italian Dream" Vettori and No. 12 ranked Roman Dolidze.
Check out my Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze predictions, picks and odds for UFC Vegas 104 on Saturday, March 15.
Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze Odds, Prediction
| Vettori Odds | -162 |
| Dolidze Odds | +136 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 Rounds (-230/+175) |
| Location | UFC Apex | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 104 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Vegas 104 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
This fight is a rematch from UFC 286 in March 2023; Vettori won a unanimous decision as a -250 favorite, but a majority of media and fan scorecards (58%) had the bout for Dolidze.
Vettori subsequently lost to Jared Cannonier, then withdrew from an April 2024 booking with Brendan Allen to have shoulder surgery. Saturday's return will mark his fifth career main event or five-round fight.
After losing to Vettori, Dolidze faded in his lone five-round test against Nassourdine Imavov. Still, he has responded with consecutive wins against Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland and looks to reascend toward middleweight title contention.
Vettori vs. Dolidze prediction and preview
Tale of the Tape
| Vettori | Dolidze | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-7-1 | 14-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:55 | 11:15 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 76" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/20/1993 | 7/15/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.56 | 3.16 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.24 | 3.28 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.06 | 1.33 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 42% |
| TD Def | 69% | 33% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.5 |
Dolidze is the bigger man (2" taller, 2" reach advantage) and the more powerful athlete. Vettori won the significant strike count in each round of the first fight (38-29, 28-16, 40-26), but most of his damage came via leg kicks (landed 38 of 40); the head strike margin (+8 for Vettori) was much closer throughout, and Dolidze landed the more impactful blows.
Historically, Vettori is the more efficient striker (+0.1 to -0.8 strike differential per minute), because he throws more output, as both fighters are very hittable (56% striking defense for Vettori, 50% for Dolidze). They have attempted the same rate of takedowns (1.7 per five minutes at distance) throughout their respective careers.
Neither is a particularly effective offensive wrestler, but Dolidze – who only shot one takedown in the first fight – is the better submission grappler, with a more effective top game; he'd be wise to mix things up more in the rematch.
Vettori has the better takedown defense (69%) of the pair, and his excellent combination of cardio and durability makes him a tough stylistic matchup for the oft finish-reliant Dolidze. While Roman "covered" his moneyline number or outfought his odds in a three-round fight – additional minutes only benefits Vettori's gas tank and output down the stretch of this contest.
Moreover, Vettori changed camps before this fight – moving to American Top Team (ATT), and he could mix in more offensive wrestling or clinching early to tire out his more powerful opponent. Typically, I'd expect a fighter to add more calf kicks after moving to ATT too – but Vettori low kicked Dolidze in the first matchup more than he has against any other opponent; I'm not sure how much they can alter in his approach on the feet.
I have slight concerns about Vettori's early effectiveness – partly due to cage rust, coming off shoulder surgery and a relatively significant layoff (last competed in June 2023). Still, Dolidze's success is typically frontloaded against any opponent – and you might find the best price on the favorite in the live market.
Without awareness of betting odds, I'd lean towards Dolidze to win inside the distance – or his finish only moneyline – while leaning towards Vettori in any longer iterations of the matchup, including his decision only moneyline, decision prop, or Same Game Parlays with Vettori and Overs, while waiting to bet the favorite live.
Vettori vs. Dolidze Prediction
I projected Marvin Vettori as a 60% favorite (-150 implied odds) in this matchup, and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline from a pre-fight perspective.
However, to reiterate, target Vettori live anytime after Round 1, at a better price than his pre-fight moneyline.
I would bet the goes the distance or decision prop to -220, as I project this fight to reach a decision more than 70% of the time (-247 implied odds)
Additionally, I show value on Vettori to win by decision (projected +103, listed +120 at FanDuel) or Dolidze to win by submission (projected +1288, listed +1900 at BetRivers) depending upon the book.
Alternatively, place a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with Vettori and the Over 2.5 Rounds (-128) or his odds to win in Rounds 4, 5 or by decision (-110 at FanDuel), accounting for a potential attritional finish in the latter stages of the fight.
However, considering the narrow price discrepancy between Vettori's pre-fight moneyline and the SGP, I'd rather lay more juice in the goes to decision market – at a more significant edge, or merely take Vettori by decision at plus money.
Sean's Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (-190 at Fanatics); bet to -220 | Marvin Vettori Live Anytime After Round 1
