Here's everything you need to know about the Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop odds at UFC 309 on Saturday, November 16 – with our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Just one week after Carlos Prates dominated in the main event of UFC Vegas 100, the Fighting Nerds are back at it again with Mauricio Ruffy opening the main card of UFC 309.
He's a big favorite against Peru's James Llontop in what should be an action-packed striking fight. Let's see if we can find some betting value despite the long odds.
Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop Odds
| Ruffy Odds | -900 |
| Llontop Odds | +600 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-180 / +140) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC 309 with our FanDuel promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Ruffy | Llontop | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-1 | 14-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:44 | 11:31 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 156 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/17/1996 | 8/2/1999 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.88 | 5.38 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.8 | 3.97 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 100% | 54% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Ruffy vs. Llontop Preview
If you happened to compare where fighters are ranked on various MMA sites versus where their placement is on this pay-per-view card, you might be wondering why Ruffy against Llontop has billing on the main card. The answer is quite simple – the UFC believes Ruffy is a potential star.
Oddsmakers have installed Ruffy as high as a -950 favorite at some sportsbooks, signaling he outmatches his opponent, Llontop, significantly. However, there is a case to be made that this line is too wide. Llontop displays the durability and cardio you love to see in an underdog you're considering betting on.
Both fighters are recent graduates of Dana White’s Contender Series, and both impressed in different ways. Llontop showcased a varied attack for the full 15-minute duration of the bout, hardly slowing down as he pressured his opponent, attacked the body, and unleashed kicks en route to a rather dominant performance.
While Llontop tops Ruffy in volume and output thus far in their short UFC careers, it’s very difficult to see him overcoming the odds if he cannot expose Ruffy’s untested defensive grappling prowess. I do not believe Llontop possesses the athleticism necessary to be the opponent to drag this fight to the mat, which means it’s likely we'll see this fight play out at range on the feet.
Ruffy has a massive edge in hand speed, and he has already shown his ability to manage distance like a UFC veteran. Llontop seems to have added an elongated looping overhand right to his arsenal since moving to the main roster, and if deployed, it spells major trouble against a fighter as powerful and accurate as Ruffy.
Ruffy has finished his last five opponents by KO/TKO and has proven he can carry that power into the late-3rd round. That round 3 victory on DWCS was up a weight class, at welterweight, and this fight is scheduled at a catchweight of 165 lbs, once again favoring the naturally larger fighter in Ruffy.
While Ruffy may not overwhelm the natural lightweight Llontop with volume, his crisp low kicks, in conjunction with stinging sniper-like hands, will eventually add up to a substantial amount of damage.
Ruffy vs. Llontop Pick
It’s never an easy task to find a betting angle with good value on such a large favorite, but considering Llontop has never been knocked out, this may be the last chance to play Ruffy by knockout at a reasonable price against a fighter he clearly out-classes.
This is unlikely to be the 1st-round KO that steals the show, but the accuracy, speed, and timing of Ruffy will be too much for his opponent Saturday night.
The Pick: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO -140 (FanDuel)
