Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez Odds
Saturday's UFC Fight Night card features two top featherweight contenders — No. 3-ranked Yair Rodriguez and No. 1-ranked Max "Blessed" Holloway — going head-to-head in a five-round main event clash on ESPN.
Holloway, who boldly claimed that he is the best boxer in the UFC, hasn't been in action since January after suffering an injury this summer. Prior to that, he has had two battles with current champion Alexander Volkanovski that ended in controversial decisions.
Rodriguez has been out of the Octagon for two years and will have a tough challenge ahead of him in his first fight back. An impressive win for either man this weekend could give him chance at gold in the future.
So how should you wager on this matchup? Below I preview how these fighters stack up and how bettors should be approaching Saturday's main event.
Tale of the Tape
| Holloway | Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-6 | 14-2 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:02 | 13:17 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/4/1991 | 10/6/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.26 | 4.33 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.58 | 3.13 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.21 | 0.90 |
| TD Acc | 71% | 29% |
| TD Def | 84% | 63% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.9 |
This fight will be a striking first affair throughout. Rodriguez has not landed a takedown since 2016 and Holloway has just three takedowns in 10 fights over that same timespan.
Rodriguez is a much less technical striker than Holloway — he has plenty of highlight-reel strikes in his repertoire but will lose a technical striking battle. His best-case scenario to winning this fight will be landing a powerful shot that gets through the impressive guard Holloway uses when defending strikes.
Holloway overwhelms opponents with a combination of volume and power making it difficult for anyone to get in a rhythm. Unless Holloway is fighting an opponent who can focus on leg kicks, he is unlikely to lose a decision.
Interestingly, Holloway stands very heavy on that front leg. Volkanovski won both of his fights with Max by landing repeated low calf kicks and wrestling.
These are not skills that we have seen from Rodriguez in the past. He will need to show off a new wrinkle of his game that we have not seen to improve his chances of winning this fight.
Holloway vs. Rodriguez Pick
Max Holloway opened as a -300 favorite for this fight, which is probably where it should be. The public has steamed his price to -700 on PointsBet, which is a huge price to pay, he is not worth adding to a parlay at his current price.
I don't see a way that Rodriguez pulls this one out and gets a win this weekend. We have seen Rodriguez down on the scorecards in a five round fight against Chan Sung Jung. I am expecting this fight to be very similar, but without the unbelievable knockout with one second left in the fight.
However, this is the biggest price tag that Holloway has ever been given in his career. Here are Holloway's most lopsided betting lines during his career:
- Nov. 2021 vs. Yair Rodriguez: -700
- Aug. 2014 vs. Clay Collard: -675
- Oct. 2014 vs. Akira Corassani: -575
- Feb. 2015 vs. Cole Miller: -450
- Dec. 2015 vs. Jeremy Stephens: -450
Rodriguez is likely the best opponent of any of those other four fighters. Still, the matchup is very difficult to envision a win for Rodriguez.
The best way to bet Holloway is try and hedge between a late finish and a decision win. His odds to win in Rounds 4, 5 or by Decision on PointsBet are listed at -132. This covers the late finish as well as his most likely win condition which is a decision.
Furthermore, Holloway is +165 to win by unanimous decision. This is worth a bet down to +135 as any split decisions for Holloway as a -700 favorite would be an absolute shocker.
The Pick: Max Holloway to win in Rounds 4, 5 or by Decision -132 | Holloway by Unanimous Decision +165
