Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett Odds, Prediction
| Chandler Odds | +124 |
| Pimblett Odds | -148 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (-215/+165) |
| Location | Kaseya Center | Miami, Florida |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 314 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 314 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett predictions, picks and odds for UFC 314 on Saturday, April 12th.
We have an intriguing co-main event at UFC 314 between two fan favorites. The veteran Michael Chandler has struggled against top lightweights, but has a chance to show he's still a player in the division by sending the fast-rising Paddy Pimblett back down the ladder. Pimblett is 6-0 in the UFC since joining the promotion, but is now facing the stiffest test of his career against Chandler.
Here's my Chandler vs. Pimblett prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Chandler | Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-9 | 22-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:18 | 8:14 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/24/1986 | 1/03/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.49 | 4.94 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 40% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.59 | 0.91 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 25% |
| TD Def | 63% | 52% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 2.1 |
The two competitors in this bout are clearly trending in the opposite direction.
Michael Chandler is 1-4 over his last five — though each loss was against a top-five lightweight — and at 38 certainly has his best days in the rear view mirror. Pimblett turned 30 this January, and is continuing to improve in each fight. The crucial question this weekend is how quickly those lines have diverged.
That's because the best version of Chandler, a multiple-time Bellator champion who was arguably the best lightweight in the world for a time, clearly beats the best version of Pimblett that we've seen so far.
Chandler is probably best known for his explosive punching power, with 11 knockouts in 23 career victories. He was also an All-American collegiate wrestler, and a borderline elite overall athlete.
However, those skills have started to slip. In his last fight against Charles Oliveira he was unable to find the mark with most of his big shots, and was taken down in every round by the Brazilian.
Pimblett, like Oliveira, does his best work on the ground, and has a similar reach edge against the stockier Chandler. While "The Baddy" isn't the overall submission threat that Oliveira is, he presents a similar challenge .
In his recent fights, Chandler has been all too willing to accept bad positions on the ground, staying safe from submissions but clearly losing rounds in the process. If Pimblett can land takedowns we should see a similar dynamic, though that's a big if given the American's wrestling credentials.
Oliveira was able to ground Chandler by first tagging him on the feet, then changing levels while "Iron Mike" covered up to prevent further damage. We haven't seen that level of striking ability out of Pimblett yet, but he's made obvious improvements on the feet since joining the UFC.
There's also an interesting cardio dynamic here. Pimblett hasn't gone five rounds since he was a Cage Warriors featherweight, while Chandler went 25 minutes in November. Chandler seemed to be fading down the stretch, but then caught a second win in the fifth round and had his best moments of the fight.
The massive Pimblett cuts a ton of weight, so the conventional wisdom is that he's likelier to fade down the stretch. However, his style is far less energy intensive than Chandler's, so perhaps he holds up better down the stretch.
The other issue for the favorite is the potential of Chandler landing a big shot. Pimblett has never been knocked out — and is known for proclaiming "Scouser's don't get knocked out" — but he also hasn't fought anyone with Chandler's power.
Chandler vs. Pimblett Prediction
All that aside, I find myself leaning towards the younger man here. While comparing him to the legendary Charles Oliveira is extremely premature and optimistic, he has some stylistic similarities that should give Chandler trouble.
It's a bit uncomfortable because we're laying juice on a fighter to be better than we've ever seen him, but that's a somewhat safe assumption in this case. Still, I'm betting to win half a unit on Pimblett's moneyline, which is -148 at DraftKings.
My favorite bet for this fight, though, is a long shot sprinkle. Much has been made of Chandler's blatant cheating, which peaked in his last fight. He raked Oliveira's eye within the first minute of the fight, got away with a few obvious fence grabs, held onto Oliveira's gloves, and landed about a dozen shots to the back of the head.
Pimblett is very aware of this, and plans on warning the referee to be on the lookout for any infractions. As Pimblett noted, which referee gets assigned this fight could play a factor on whether the rules are enforced, but whoever it is will certainly be aware of Chandler's reputation.
Due to that, I'm taking a sprinkle on the "Point to be Deducted" line at +2000 via DraftKings. Betting on UFC officials to actually do their job is never a fun feeling, but at 20-1 odds I'll take my chances.
Billy's Pick: Paddy Pimblett -148 (.74 Units) DraftKings | Point to be Deducted +2000 (0.1 units) DraftKings
