Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles Odds
Two welterweights who were initially slated to fight on the prelim card are now opening up the Pay-Per-View for UFC 270.
Michael Morales makes his debut after competing on DWCS and will meet Trevin Giles on the main card Saturday night. Despite his experience, Giles enters as the underdog and is seeking to get back in the win column after a knockout loss in July.
Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Morales | Giles | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-0 | 14-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 11:47 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/24/99 | 8/6/92 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.53 | 3.14 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.47 | 2.01 |
| SS Defense | 34% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.00 | 1.27 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 80% |
| TD Def | 100% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Giles, a career Middleweight, debuted in the UFC in 2017 at Light Heavyweight but will make his first MMA appearance as a Welterweight on Saturday night.
His opponent, debutant Michael Morales, earned his UFC contract as a +155 underdog on Week 4 of Contender Series last September. Surprisingly, Morales will enter his promotional debut as a slight favorite against an eight-fight octagon veteran, who holds wins over James Krause and Roman Dolidze.
Among the Contender Series debutants — and especially amongst the group on Saturday's card — Morales has one of the higher ceilings as a prospect.
Still, this bout represents a step down in competition for Giles relative to his previous opponents, and a significant class hike for the 22-year-old Morales.
My primary concerns with Giles are his speed and cardio. He wasn't a particularly big middleweight, but he may be a step too slow after dropping down in class despite an anticipated increase in power.
Moreover, Giles never had good stamina to begin with, and cutting weight could further serve to zap his explosiveness halfway through a fight.
Morales vs. Giles Pick
Considering that Giles made weight with relative ease, I have to side with the well-rounded — if unspectacular — UFC veteran against a youngster facing the most challenging test of his career.
I projected Giles as a slight favorite (52%) and would bet his moneyline at his current price or any plus money price if you can still find it. However, I don't show value on either side of the total or any winning method props for the fight.
The Pick: Trevin Giles ML (-105)
