Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman Odds
| Cirkunov Odds | -120 |
| Turman Odds | +100 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-165 / +135) |
| Venue | UFC APEX |
| Time | Approx. 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. | |
UFC Vegas 49's co-main event features two middleweights squaring off. Consensus favorite, Misha Cirkunov, will face off against Wellington Turman. This will be Cirkunov's second middleweight fight . Prior to that, he was fighting mostly at light heavyweight.
Neither of these fighters tend to go the distance. In fact, despite each of their last fights going to decision, Cirkunov had never been to a decision in his UFC career, and 13 of 22 fights for Turman have ended inside the distance.
Below, I breakdown an expected firefight for this weekend's co-main event.
Tale of the Tape
| Cirkunov | Turman | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-7 | 17-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 4:52 | 10:48 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/27/87 | 6/22/92 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.77 | 3.04 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.08 | 3.96 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 43% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.48 | 2.22 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 22% |
| TD Def | 70% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 1.7 | 0.6 |
Looking at Cirkunov's record would lead people to believe that he is a poor striker. This is not a totally baseless claim as he is a grappler first and striker a distance second.
However, he did some improved stand-up against Krzysztof Jotko in his last fight. That fight went to a split-decision, although most people believe that Jotko won it unanimously per MMADecisions.
CIRKUNOV vs TURMAN! #UFCVegas49 is LIVE TOMORROW on @ESPNPlus! pic.twitter.com/tz0AsgrbLn
— danawhite (@danawhite) February 25, 2022
Cirkunov looked much bigger than Turman in the post-weight faceoffs. This will have an obvious effect on Turman's ability to defend takedowns.
Standing at 6'3" compared to just 6'0" for Turman is significant. Moreover, Cirkunov has a big five-inch reach advantage (77 inches vs. 72 inches for Turman). Turman being undersized really hurts his ability to land a serious knockout shot while striking.
Turman is mostly a striker who beat Sam Alvey by split decision. That fight shouldn't have been a split decision, but two point deductions made that a reality in the third round.
Cirkunov's last five wins are by submission, and four of his last five losses are by KO/TKO. This fight is very unlikely to go to a decision.
Cirkunov vs. Turman Pick
Wellington Turman has been working in some takedowns and grappling in his UFC career. He will be wise to not fall back on that in this fight, otherwise, it will end in a submission loss for him.
A major problem that we see in the UFC is some fighters panic grapple when they get tired to catch their breath. It's not the worst strategy if your opponent can't grapple. However, Turman has done this in the past and is the inferior grappler in this matchup.
Furthermore, I do agree that both of these fighters are mostly made of glass with poor durability when getting hit by strikes. Still, Cirkunov's losses by knockout are exclusively at a higher weight class.
Fighters going down in weight are usually a spot to back in MMA, as Sean Zerillo and I have discussed on countless occasions. For all of these reasons, I am backing Cirkunov to win this fight and win it inside the distance. Cirkunov's moneyline is worth a bet up to -140 but not higher than that.
Moreover, FanDuel recently released method and round combo props which are particularly exciting for me to bet on. Cirkunov to win by submission in Round 2 or 3 is +550 on FanDuel.
Turman shooting for a desperation takedown later in the fight and getting submitted is a tasty betting opportunity. I'd bet this submission round combo down to +425.
Lastly, a prop that is worth .15 units or less is this fight to have a point deduction(+2000 on DraftKings). This is a micro-stab at most here as Turman had two points deducted last time out.
The Pick: Cirkunov -120 | Cirkunov wins by submission in Round 2 or 3 +550 (FanDuel) | Point to be deducted +2000 (DraftKings)
