Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of prop bets with oversized odds for UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev on Saturday.
This week marks the return of Prop Squad members Manpreet Jhass, Bryan Fonseca, Dan Tom, Clint MacLean, Tony Sartori and Billy Ward. To date, the squad has posted an overall 20.6% ROI with their picks.
Check out all of their prop plays for Saturday's event, which airs on ESPN+ pay-per-view (10 p.m. ET) from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, below. Prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and then ESPN2.
As with all betting, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types.
Tony Sartori: T.J. Brown by Submission (+420)
Contributor at The Action Network
In the second fight on the early preliminary card, we get a featherweight bout between Contender Series veterans T.J. Brown and Erik Silva. This scrap will almost certainly take place on the mat, which is where each fighter is most comfortable.
Brown is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Roli Delgado while Silva specializes in grappling/ground-and-pound, which is how he won each of his past five fights that ended in finishes. Silva enters this bout in an eight-fight winning streak, though seven of those victories were in lower-tier promotions.
With this fight destined to take place on the mat, I like experience at the highest level to win out in a grappling match. This aspect of the fight is where Brown has the edge.
Although he is just 3-3 in the UFC, Brown has had some tough matchups, including his win over Charles Rosa on short notice and his most recent loss, to Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. Brown's relentless submission attempts were on display against Nuerdanbieke and Rosa, and he could catch a more inexperienced Silva late in the fight with a reversal.
This scrap is a big step up for Silva after dominating Anvar Boynazarov in his Contender Series bout. That being said, I do not think that he will be able to dominate Brown on the mat as he did to Boynazarov, opening the door to the question of whether or not he can last at this level as the fight progresses to later rounds.
Silva has not been tested past the second round in almost four years, and I would not be shocked at all if Brown pulls off a reversal submission later in the fight. It is worth noting that Silva's lone professional loss was via submission late in the final round.
Pick: T.J. Brown by Submission (+420) |
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Bryan Fonseca: Jairzinho Rozenstruik in Round 2 (+650)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Jairzinho Rozenstruik is 2-4 in his last six fights and badly needs a win to maintain a credible spot in the UFC heavyweight title picture heading into 2023. The last time we saw him, he was getting rocked by Alexander Volkov in June, and even then he had been fresh off a unanimous-decision loss to Curtis Blaydes the previous September.
Luckily for Rozenstruik, who's earned knockouts in almost all of his career einw, he has an opponent this weekend in Chris Daukas who's been knocked out in four of five losses. And like Rozenstruik, Daukas is coming off back-to-back defeats.
In March, Blaydes disposed of Daukaus 17 seconds into Round 2, and Daukas was knocked out by Derrick Lewis in Round 1 of their bout last December.
Oddsmakers suggest that the fighters, who both have 11 KOs in 12 total victories, won’t allow this go to the cards. In fact, the money is on this ending in Round 1.
I’ll say that this slugfest carries on a bit longer than that. Of Daukaus’ four KO losses, two have come in Round 1, and the Lewis one was the only one in recent memory.
We’ll ride with Rozenstruik, but the longshot here is for him to get it done in Round 2. Even if it’s similar to Blaydes, who just needed an extra 17 seconds after Round 1.
This will end, and end quickly – but hopefully not too quickly.
Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik in Round 2 (+650) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Clint Maclean: Edmen Shahbazyan by Submission (+800)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Edmen Shahbazyan is a -300 favorite at UFC 282 and coming in on a three-fight losing skid.
I know that -300 may have you scratching your head because Shahbazyan is coming off not only three losses, but multiple stoppage defeats. This is your “zoom out” fight of the night, though.
Shahbazyan was incredibly hyped when he made it to the UFC because of his raw talent and fantastic boxing skills. He was training at a bad gym with a toxic head coach, though, and he failed to evolve.
Since switching gyms and training at Xtreme Couture, you would expect that talent to finally be harnessed. Even in Shahbazyan's last fight against Nassourdine Imavov, you could see the improvement in fight IQ, gas and wrestling. He ended up taking an L, but it was not a bad performance.
This is a massive step down as he fights Dalcha Lungiambula, who is 10 years older and who gasses worse than Shahbazyan. Shahbazyan has been teasing showing us some new tricks, and I tend to believe wrestling and submissions are the skills he is hinting at
Let's take that shot at Shahbazyan proving on a huge stage that the hole in his game has been patched up.
The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan by Submission (+800 at SuperBook Sports)
Manpreet Jhass: Billy Quarantillo in Round 3 (+1100)
Contributor at The Action Network and MMA content creator
Headlining the early preliminary portion of the UFC 282 card is a featherweight fight between Billy Quarantillo and Alexander Hernandez.
Quarantillo will hope to come out victorious following a loss in his last fight, which was a fight-of-the-year contender against Shane Burgos.
Hernandez aims to reignite his UFC career after trading wins and losses over his last eight fights.
Fan-favorite Quarantillo always brings the fight to his opponent. He has one of the best styles for a fighter with his pace and pressure. He is not the most technical striker, but he makes up for it with his toughness and constant forward movement. He is a wizard on the mat, but he doesn't get too desperate trying to get the fight to the mat. He takes his time, slowly chipping away at his opponent, and then he puts his foot on the gas late in fights to dispose of them.
Hernandez has long gotten away with his physical gifts to secure his victories. His explosiveness and power can't be questioned, though I wonder what kind of toll this weight cut will cause him. A lot of his success comes from knockouts or his ability to outmuscle opponents and grind them out with his wrestling. He isn't the most technical striker either, but his power demands respect from his opponents.
This will be the first time Hernandez has cut down to 145 pounds in more than nine years. He was 21 when he last made this cut. He looked fine on the scale, but I do think it will be a detriment to him come fight night.
I think we will see a classic Billy Q performance in which the fight is close early, but as it drags on, Hernandez will succumb to the pace and pressure. The weight cut will definitely be an advantage for us as I expect Hernandez to be hindered by it.
I am targeting the prop for Round 3, a round in which Quarantillo has gotten the finish in three of his past five victories.
Pick: Billy Quarantillo in Round 3 (+1100) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dan Tom: Chris Curtis in Round 2 (+1100) | Curtis in Round 3 (+1500)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
This weekend's UFC offering is full of matchups that you may want action on – but not necessarily a ton of exposure to (which is why round props are always a solid option).
This week, I decided to split my unit allotment by shotgun-spraying some rounds in a prelim bout between Chris Curtis and Joaquin Buckley.
Although I have a stated bias toward Xtreme Couture fighters, I was genuinely shocked to see Curtis come in as the underdog in this spot.
Perhaps it's recency bias from a bout that he took on short notice opposite Jack Hermansson, but I believe that Curtis is a superior striker with the defensive wrestling chops to shut down Buckley's recent trend of shooting takedowns.
Add in Buckley's propensity to gas down the stretch, and I ended up sprinkling on Curtis to find a crushing counter by Rounds 2 or 3 as a potential-added bonus to my other play on his moneyline.
The Picks: Chris Curtis to Win in Round 2 (+1100 at FanDuel) | Curtis to Win in Round 3 (+1500 at FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Jared Gordon in Round 2 (+1700) | Gordon in Round 3 (+2100)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Jared Gordon is fighting Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett in the co-main event of UFC 282, in what will be Pimblett’s pay-per-view debut. There’s a significant hype train around Pimblett, but that’s based just as much on his personality as his ability.
Pimblett has fought much lesser competition so far in his UFC career, with Jared Gordon a significant step up. Pimblett has dispatched all of his UFC opponents in eight minutes or quicker and hasn’t really been taken to deep waters.
While we haven’t seen Pimblett struggle from a cardio standpoint in the octagon, there’s reason to believe he will. His relentless all-attacking style takes a lot of energy, and his habit of getting (hilariously) out of shape between fights isn’t a great sign. He’s also lost his last two fights that went to the judges.
Contrast that to Gordon, who’s 6-0 in fights that go to a decision in the UFC. While we’re betting on a finish here in Round 2 (+1500) or Round 3 (+2100), it certainly helps to know that Gordon can keep up the pace deep into fights. Pimblett’s defensive liabilities – both striking and grappling – should equate to Gordon finding a finish if this one goes long.
I’m also interested in live-betting Gordon after the first round, mainly as a hedge in case of a decision victory.
But for MMA Prop Squad, we'll split my wager into two half-unit bets.
The Picks: Jared Gordon to Win in Round 2 (+1500 at FanDuel) | Gordon to Win in Round 3 (+2100 at FanDuel)
