Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of prop bets with oversized odds for UFC Paris on Saturday.
In this weekly feature, Action Network's MMA team welcomes in a revolving cast of outside contributors and fellow combat-sports analysts. Each #MMAPropSquad installment will feature a handful of picks, usually with odds of +400 or longer, from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts.
This week marks the return of contributors Clint Maclean and Tony Sartori, as well as the debut of Liam Heslin, who does our weekly Contender Series best bets.
Check out their picks for Saturday's event, which streams on ESPN+ from Paris starting at noon ET (9 a.m. PT), below.
As with all betting, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types.
Clint Maclean: Jourdain in Round 3 (+1300)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
The people’s main event for this card has to be Charles “Air” Jourdain vs. Nathaniel Wood, and I cannot wait for this one.
Wood is getting settled in a new weight class and looked fantastic in his debut after moving up to fight Charles Rosa, but I have serious questions about his size at this weight. Rosa is a primary grappler who relies on his bottom game more than anything, and he is not well known for his striking. So for Wood to come out and piece up Rosa as the smaller, faster man was not much of a surprise to anybody.
Jourdain, on the other hand, is coming off a battle with one of the division’s finest and biggest in "Hurricane" Shane Burgos. Jourdain has always struggled with his grappling, and Burgos exploited that perfectly until Jourdain decided he wasn't going out like that.
Jourdain has a tendency to start a bit slow and ramp his offense up as his opponents fade, and he had Burgos on the ropes in Round 3. Burgos has legendary durability and was able to survive, but most mortals wouldn't be able to claim the same.
Wood is the opposite of Jourdain, and for the majority of his career, he has been a fast starter who has been known to slow down a bit. Looking at Wood’s losses, we see that four of five have been by finish. And three of those four have been in the third round specifically.
Getting the bigger fighter who turns up against a smaller fighter known to fall apart? This bet is a must-play even if it's just a sprinkle.
Give me Charles Jourdain in the third round, and if you are looking for the best number, SuperBook Sports is hanging a +1300.
The Pick: Charles Jourdain Wins in Round 3 (+1300 at SuperBook Sports)
Liam Heslin: Jourdain-Wood Ends via Submission (+400), Jourdain via Submission (+1100)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
As Clint mentioned above, Charles Jourdain and Nathaniel Wood are expected to compete in perhaps the most exciting and violent bout on the UFC Paris main card.
Jourdain is less likely than Wood to pursue takedowns in this matchup as he has a size advantage and potentially a striking advantage, as well. Wood has landed seven takedowns on 14 attempts through nine UFC outings. He is also the more likely party to attempt submissions while in positions of control, with a sub attempt rate of 0.5 compared to 0.3 for Jourdain. Jourdain is 4-1 to submissions in his career, a slightly better success rate than Wood’s 5-2 record to the submission.
Wood is also competing in his second bout at 145 pounds. I expect his smaller stature to lead him to pursue more takedowns, particularly if hurt by strikes on the feet. I think that the pace, frenetic grappling style, and power of Jourdain will create "club-and-sub" opportunities, transition submissions, and late-fight heroics if necessary (classic Jourdain third-round comeback).
That being said, his opponent is more likely to pursue takedowns early, and the major deficiency in Jourdain’s game historically has been his porous TD defense and grappling shortcomings.
Overall, I think the market is not recognizing how live the submission finish is in this match because both men prefer to do work on the feet with their striking. I think anything above +400 on the fight to end by submissions could hold value, but my favorite bet on this fight is Jourdain to win via submission at +1100
The Picks: Charles Jourdain-Nathaniel Wood Ends via Submission (+450 at FanDuel) | Jourdain Wins via Submission (+1300 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Figlak via KO (+800)
Contributor at The Action Network
We have an intriguing lightweight bout set to take place during the prelims as Michal Figlak meets Fares Ziam.
Making his UFC debut, Figlak enters this fight as a consensus -200 betting favorite. There's some buzz surrounding the European striker after a successful 8-0 pro run prior to joining the UFC. Earning a reputation for throwing at high volume with great combination work, Figlak has proven to be a problem in the octagon with four of those eight wins coming via KO/TKO.
Three of his fights under the Cage Warriors had betting lines, with Figlak winning all three as a favorite and two via KO/TKO. One of the main reasons I love backing Figlak in this scrap is that he can stop the fight from any position, as evidenced by his performances in Cage Warriors.
Figlak can beat you boxing, wear you down on the mat with relentless ground and pound, or even mix in knees and kicks. His opponent in this bout, Ziam, has struggled with takedown defense thus far in his UFC career, which has been apparent in all four fights he has been in.
McKinney subbed him in the first round, Mullarkey took him down five times, and Madge dominated Ziam on the mat for 15 straight minutes. That is where I think Ziam will lose this fight because if Figlak takes him down, I am not sure his defense on the mat can prevent Figlak from just reigning down punches and ending the scrap early.
Additionally, there is a bias in this line that is most likely the only reason that Figlak is not -250 or higher, and that is because Ziam is French. While he does have the benefit of fighting in front of a home crowd, that does not mean his defense is all of the sudden going to drastically improve.
At 8:1, give me the better striker to end this event before the final bell.
The Pick: Michal Figlak to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+800 at FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Tuivasa by KO (+650)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Since the start of 2020, Tai Tuivasa has entered the UFC octagon five times. He’s come in many fashions, walking down the ramp to the sounds of “Barbie Girl”, “Girls Just Wanna Have Fun,” and “Wannabe” among others.
Each time though, he’s exited the same way: with a shoe filled with beer in his hand, following another knockout victory.
Despite that track record, his odds of repeating that feat yet again are all the way up at +650 on FanDuel. Honestly, I get it. Skill for skill, there’s no reason he should beat Cyril Gane in Saturday's main event. Gane is more athletic, has better reach, and is the better technical striker.
On the other hand, similar things could have been said before each of “Bam Bam's” past five UFC bouts. Particularly the last one, in which he was a +160 underdog to Derrick Lewis.
Gane is a very different fighter than Lewis and a significant step up for Tuivasa. But Lewis was a big step up at the time, as was Augusto Sakai, and Stefan Struve, and so on.
If you want to hedge this one a bit, Gane and over 9.5 minutes – essentially Gane in the third round or later – is +110 as an SGP on DraftKings. That feels like the likeliest outcome, a cautious Gane win.
The most fun outcome – and the one I’ll be pulling for – involves a lot more spilled French beer.
The Pick: Tai Tuivasa Wins by KO/TKO (+650 at FanDuel)
Dann Stupp: Gane-Tuivasa Ends in Round 3 (+750)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
As I detailed in my UFC Paris Best Bet, I've got a decent amount of action on Saturday's main event.
I've yet to pick a side, though, for this fight. Sure, Billy makes a compelling argument above for Tai Tuivasa to beat Ciryl Gane via some juicy KO-prop odds, and our colleague Sean Zerillo recently broke down the main event and offered a really solid same-game parlay option while backing Gane.
But I found some round/time props I couldn't pass up.
My favorite bet from this card is Gane-Tuivasa to end inside the distance. It's chalky (-250), but I still think there's plenty of value there in a five-round fight.
After what I expect to be a fairly cautious and methodical first round, I think the fighters will become a little more aggressive and open up. Tuisava will either find his opening, or the more-technical Gane will continue to chip away and put away a fighter who's gone past the second round just twice in his career.
Ultimately, I think the magic happens in Round 3. Oddmakers have set the total for this fight at 2.5 rounds (shaded slightly to the under), so they also seem to think the third round could be the deciding one.
I'm really happy with my DNGTD bet at -250 odds, which would provide $40 of profit on a $100 bet. So getting +750 odds – almost 19 times the payout ($750 profit) – in the round I think the fight is most likely to end? That's a flier that I'm happy to take.
The Pick: Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa Ends in Round 3 (+750 at FanDuel)
