Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of prop bets with oversized odds for UFC Vegas 64.
In this weekly feature, Action Network's MMA team welcomes in a revolving cast of outside contributors and fellow combat-sports analysts. Each #MMAPropSquad installment will feature a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have posted an 11.4% ROI to date.
This week marks the return of contributors Liam Heslin and Clint MacLean, who join editor Dann Stupp for this week's prop plays.
Check out their picks for Saturday's event, which airs on streams on ESPN+ (4 p.m. ET) from Las Vegas, below.
As with all betting, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing lines, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types because of those long odds.
Liam Heslin: Polyana Viana via Submission (+360)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Polyana Viana was a popular bet in her last octagon appearance against Tabatha Ricci, but she was unable to deliver for her backers, dropping a unanimous decision to "Baby Shark"
Now she is a short favorite against Jin Yuh Frey, a former atomweight fighter on the back nine of her career. Frey also dropped her most recent bout to Vanessa Demopolous via unanimous decision, so both ladies will be looking to bounce back in this spot.
Viana is a talented grappler, but she was unable to latch onto any submissions against a Brazilian jiu-jitu black belt and credentialed judoka in Ricci. Frey is listed as a BJJ purple belt whereas Viana is a BJJ brown belt.
Viana is willing to pull guard, attempt takedowns, or try to knock down her opponent with her long-range strikes in order to attempt her patented armbar from guard. Viana is 3-4 in the UFC with all three wins coming by way of first-round armbar.
She is favored to win this fight at an average market price of -135 (57.5%), yet her submission prop can be found on the market as high as +360 (21.7%) at FanDuel. So, Viana via submission is my official prop play.
However, if you want to get more specific, you can target the round and method combination prop, as Viana has secured each of her three UFC submission wins in the very first round (that pays +900 at FanDuel). Both women have been submitted via armbar in the UFC, so if you want to take advantage of the plus money without picking a side, you can also look at the fight to end by submission prop at +280 (26.3%) at FanDuel.
The Pick: Polyana Viana by Submission (+360 at FanDuel)
Clint MacLean: Derrick Minner via Round 1 Submission (+900)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Darrick Minner vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is a fun fight and will decide which fighter gets over the hump in the UFC.
Nuerdanbieke is a decent-sized favorite (-215) in this spot due to the recent run he is on, but frankly, I think this is recency bias giving us an opportunity. Nuerdanbieke is a powerful grappler and looks to overpower and grind out his opponents until they give up a submission or TKO opportunity.
Minner seems like the perfect mark for Nuerdanbieke‘s style. However, this is actually a step up in competition for Nuerdanbieke and a step down for Minner. Nuerdanbieke gave up some really dangerous positions to T.J. Brown in his last fight and made mistakes that a higher-caliber grappler such as Minner will take advantage of.
Minner has 22 wins by submission with most of them coming in Rounds 1 or 2, and we know that Nuerdanbieke will look to take this fight to the ground. Nuerdanbieke has six losses by submission against non-UFC caliber competition.
We’re going to take a stab here that Minner pulls off another big upset.
The Pick: Derrick Minner by Submission in Round 1 (+900 at BetRivers)
Dann Stupp: Marina Rodriguez in Round 4 (+1800), Round 5 (+2400)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
I have a lot of friends and colleagues who are sharp MMA bettors, and in those circles, there seems to be one persistent belief for the UFC Vegas 64 main event that I also endorse: Amanda Lemos is dangerous early – and then her cardio is likely to fade after Round 2.
That's one reason many sharps – including our own Sean Zerillo – think her fight with Marina Rodriguez is ripe for live betting. After all, why pay -225 pre-fight when you can probably get a much better line for Rodriguez after a round or two?
But there are a few prop bets for this bout that are still remarkably juicy in the pre-fight betting market – and I think they're very worthy MMA Prop Squad plays this week.
If Lemos really is likely to fade in the second half of the fight, it stands to reason that the well-conditioned Rodriguez has a good shot to earn a stoppage win in the last two rounds.
Yet, sportsbooks are nonetheless offering pretty long odds for Rodriguez to win in Round 4 (+1800) and Round 5 (+2400). If DannBET were an actual sportsbook, I'd personally offer those lines at about +1200 and +1800, respectively. So I'll happily split my Squad bet into a pair of half-unit plays on those outcomes since the odds are just too good to ignore.
The Pick: Marina Rodriguez wins in Round 4 (+1800 at FanDuel) | Rodriguez wins in Round 5 (+2400 at FanDuel)
