Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Vegas 67 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's event.
In this weekly feature, Action Network's MMA team welcomes in a revolving cast of outside contributors and fellow combat-sports analysts. Each Prop Squad installment will feature a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied a solid 18.3% ROI to date.
This week marks the return of Prop Squad regulars Dan Tom, Tony Sartori and Clint MacLean.
Check out their picks for Saturday's event, which streams on ESPN+ (4 p.m. ET) from Las Vegas, below.
As with all betting, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types.
Dan Tom: Punahele Soriano by Round 1 KO (+420)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
At the risk of leaning further into my admitted bias toward Xtreme Couture fighters, I can't help but target combatants who carry a decent sample size of UFC-level experience.
For that reason, I decided to target a middleweight matchup on the main card between southpaws Punahele Soriano and Roman Kopylov.
Kopylov, who is 0-1 against UFC-level lefties (Karl Roberson), shows a host of defensive liabilities that I think could cost him in this fight.
Not only does Kopylov seem to be open to left hands and leg kicks from a southpaw stance, but the 31-year-old also has the propensity to put himself in between the cage and inner-black octagon lines – a place where "Puna" makes his money.
Kopylov's check hooks and counters will be live for as long as the fight lasts; I'm just not so sure that his toughness will be enough to save him. Kopylov has yet to be stopped officially as a pro, but he's also never been hit by someone like Soriano, who possesses life-changing power in his hands.
As coach Eric Nicksick said of Puna's power: He's "pound for pound the hardest hitter in the gym, in my opinion."
For that reason, I decided to back the Hawaiian's proven track record of first-round finishes and bet on Soriano by knockout in Round 1 at +420.
Pick: Soriano via Round 1 KO (+420) |
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Tony Sartori: Jimmy Flick via Submission (+500)
Contributor at The Action Network
To kick off the preliminary card, flyweights Charles Johnson and Jimmy Flick take the cage. Despite Johnson previously holding a belt under the LFA promotion, I am still not sold on his future success in the UFC.
In his UFC debut against blue-chip prospect Muhammad Mokaev, Johnson got utterly dominated in the grappling department. While Johnson had only a puncher's chance, it is still utterly insane that Mokaev landed 12 takedowns and accumulated 11:44 of control time in a wrestling clinic.
Johnson had no answer for Mokaev's grappling in that fight as he was rag-dolled around the octagon and spent the entire 15 minutes attempting to get back on his feet. Following this scrap, Johnson won an extremely controversial split decision against Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
Despite the fact that Zhumagulov should have won the fight, he surprisingly went away from his traditional wrestling game plan. If Flick sticks to a grappling game plan, he could perhaps find some similar success that Mokaev had against Johnson, granted not nearly at that level of domination.
After retiring from the UFC in 2020 despite starting 2-0 in the promotion, Flick is attempting his comeback. Flick, a submission specialist, had posted submissions in his last nine wins.
If Flick is able to find success in the grappling department, then a submission victory is his most likely route to a win.
The Pick: Jimmy Flick via Submission (+500 at BetRivers)
Clint MacLean: Nick Aguirre by Submission (+1300)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Daniel Argueta made his UFC debut six months ago against Damon Jackson on short notice, and to everybody’s surprise, he survived the encounter. Argueta was a +500 underdog, and many people – myself included – expected Jackson to simply blow through him. Not bad for a TUF fighter whom the UFC decided not to sign.
A few months later, Argueta gets to make his UFC debut proper – except now he is on the receiving side of a short-notice debutant. What I find interesting is Argueta again finds himself up a weight class from his natural 135 pounds, taking on a much larger foe.
Argueta is strong and scrappy, but he can be put on his back and controlled for large periods of time. He level-changes and leaves his neck out to be snatched and relies on big explosive movements to escape opponents.
Aguirre, like many UFC newcomers, is green with a slightly padded record, but he wrestles well and has a deadly front-choke sequence. When Argueta gets tired and leaves his neck out there or initiates a scramble against a much larger man with a dangerous offense, I think there’s an opportunity for a D'arce or high-elbow guillotine, which Aguirre is very good at.
I’m also playing the +425 moneyline on Aguirre because I think this fight is far closer than the line suggests, but we might as well go for all of it. Let's start the year off with a submission and a giant score.
The Pick: Nick Aguirre via Submission (+1300 at SuperBook Sports)
