Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes Odds, Prediction
| Krylov Odds | -180 |
| Reyes Odds | +150 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (-154/+120) |
| Location | Kaseya Center | Miami, Florida |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 314 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 314 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes predictions, picks and odds for UFC 314 on Saturday, April 12th.
Former title challenger Dominick Reyes is one victory away from completing a career resurgence back into contender status. His fight with fellow contender Nikita Krylov Saturday night at UFC 314 is highly volatile, with my expectations being a violent ending for whoever is the victor.
Here's my Krylov vs. Reyes prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Krylov | Reyes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 30-9 | 14-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:56 | 8:00 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/07/1992 | 12/26/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.38 | 5.64 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.47 | 3.59 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.29 | 0.31 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 28% |
| TD Def | 53% | 82% |
| Submission Avg | 1.4 | 0.3 |
Nikita Krylov is returning from a two year layoff at age 32, entering the octagon on just four occasions in the last four years. Each time we have seen Krylov in his recent form, he has shown to be incredibly aggressive, turning the fight into a brawl from the opening bell.
This approach will create an intriguing dynamic with his opponent Reyes in what may be a clash of each fighters' plan to attack the other.
After Reyes’ near championship victory over Jon Jones back in 2020, he suffered three consecutive knockout losses in brutal fashion, making it clear he had to make some changes in how he fights. He has no choice but to rely heavily on his footwork and athleticism, which is exactly what he will need to fend off the early barrage Krylov will throw at him.
Reyes has now racked up two knockout wins over his last two fights, and there is no doubts about his power. Still, it would be a mistake if he takes the bait from Krylov in obliging the type of fight he needs to ultimately avoid.
He may not be given a choice if Krylov continues to press forward. The best path to a win for Reyes involves relying on his 82% takedown defense, and even if ends up on his back, immediately working back to his feet as we have seen him do quite well in the few instances he has been taken down.
All of this leads me to believe that this fight will play out on the feet for the most part. Over the course of 15 minutes, Krylov is undoubtedly going to overextend himself by moving forward, giving ample opportunity for the fast and powerful Reyes to land damaging counter strikes.
Krylov has not suffered a knockout loss since his UFC debut in 2013, but I am getting the sense that after 18 bouts under the UFC banner, the wear and tear may be taking its toll.
Krylov vs. Reyes Prediction
It’s difficult to take the stance that Krylov’s chin cannot be trusted, but his reactions to getting hit clean has not exactly inspired confidence. After a two year layoff, there may be even more concerns at this point.
Combine that with durability issues Dominick Reyes has yet to put behind him, I am expecting this contest to end in the same manner as six of the last seven that Reyes has been involved in – with somebody getting knocked out.
John's Pick: Fight Ends via KO/TKO +140 (FanDuel)
