Niko Price vs. Michel Pereira Odds
Niko Price and Michel Pereira will face off on the UFC 264 prelims in a matchup that could easily win Fight of Night. Aside from the main event, this might be my favorite fight on the card because of the potential action it could create.
Price came away with a majority draw his last time out against Donald Cerrone, but the fight was later ruled a no contest to a failed drug test. Pereira enters this fight off back-to-back wins in late 2020.
Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
| Price | Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-4 (2 NC) | 25-11 (2 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:02 | 11:55 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 169.5 lbs. | 170.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/29/89 | 10/6/93 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.33 | 3.74 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.83 | 2.84 |
| SS Defense | 41% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.89 | 1.76 |
| TD Acc | 22% | 70% |
| TD Def | 72% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.5 |
Price is a balls-to-the-wall action fighter, landing and absorbing more than 11 significant strikes combined per minute (-0.50 strike differential). In contrast, Pereira (+0.90 strike differential) is happy to engage in high-volume wars or pick away his opponents from a distance with wildly creative attacks.
The Brazilian's power and creativity seem to slow the pressure from his opponents, and Price does have the reach advantage (+3 inches) in this fight, so Michel could struggle to win the range game.
Pereira should have the grappling edge (1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes, 70% accuracy) against Price (72% takedown defense), and I think he's both the more talented and more calculated fighter, especially of late. Pereira's grappling and power could slow the pace of this fight to a crawl.
Prices vs. Pereira Pick
I suppose there is slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -186, listed -177) or on Pereira to win inside the distance (projected +143, listed +150).
Still, there's not enough of an edge to make a play, and it's difficult to determine how this matchup might play out. If Pereira leans on his grappling, I think he finds a submission or secures a one-sided decision, but he's prone to letting his opponents hang around late into fights.
Since he's generally untrustworthy, I see no reason to force a play.
The Pick: No Bet
Be sure to check out my projections and bets for the rest of the UFC 264 card here.
