Nora Cornolle and Hailey Cowan will face off in the UFC 314 prelims on Saturday, April 12.
Here's my Cornolle vs. Cowan prediction.
Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey Cowan Odds, Prediction
| Women's Bantamweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cornolle Odds | -175 |
| Cowan Odds | +150 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-235/+175) |
Projection: Cornolle (72.2%)
Nora Cornolle is my most significant projected moneyline edge on Saturday's card. My weighted model, which accounts for multiple datapoints, including Fighter ELO Rating, betting market data and public pick percentages, has Cornolle as a -260 favorite (72.2%) implied. I would bet her moneyline up to -233 (70% implied).
Hailey Cowan is a good athlete, but extremely inexperienced at fighting. She earned a UFC contract with a split decision win on the Contender Series in 2022, then lost her UFC debut to Jamey-Lyn Horth in April 2023. She hasn't fought since.
Cornolle has had three UFC bouts in the interim — a decision win over Joselyne Edwards, a KO win over Melissa Mullins and a split decision loss to a much larger Jacqueline Cavalanti last September. A former Silver Medalist at the Muay Thai World Games, Cornolle is the far better striker — using her knees and elbows to damage opponents with all eight points of contact — and her pressure should make Cowan uncomfortable.
Moreover, Cornolle is likely the superior grappler too; Cowan relies on her physicality to power opponents to the mat, but has struggled to complete or consolidate control against more educated grapplers. Additionally, Cowan has shown cardio concerns when she tries but fails to take her opponents down or control them, leaving an opening for Cornolle to rally late, even if she gets taken down early.
Cornolle should be the more aggressive fighter, landing the more damaging shots across this contest – I favor her to win a one-sided decision or secure a TKO stoppage, and would also bet her live after Round 1.
Furthermore, consider including Cornolle inside the distance (projected +222, listed +240) on round-robin tickets.
Bets
- Nora Cornolle (-172, 0.5u) at FanDuel; bet to -233
- Nora Cornolle Live after Round 1
