Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito Odds, Prediction
| Sabatini Odds | +190 |
| Brito Odds | -230 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (-154/+120) |
| Location | UFC Apex | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 105 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Vegas 105 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito predictions, picks and odds for UFC Vegas 105 on Saturday, April 5th.
The UFC Vegas 105 co-main event pits two solid featherweights who would easily be ranked in less competitive divisions. Instead, they're squaring off with the winner potentially getting a top-15 opponent next. Brazil's Joanderson Brito is 5-2 in the promotion coming off a controversial split decision loss, while Philadelphia's Sabatini is 6-2 after submitting Jonathan Pearce in October.
Here's my Sabatini vs. Brito prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Sabatini | Brito | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-5 | 17-4-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:33 | 7:55 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/9/1990 | 2/11/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.94 | 3.02 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.47 | 2.70 |
| SS Defense | 48% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.97 | 3.08 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 68% |
| TD Def | 50% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 2.0 | 0.9 |
Joanderson Brito had his five-fight winning streak snapped in his last fight, but he almost certainly deserved to get the nod. The bulk of fans and media scored the bout for Brito, who was taking on local favorite William Gomis in France.
Outside of that, his only loss since 2015 came in his UFC debut, a reasonably close fight in which he landed just one less significant strike than his opponent, the veteran Bill Algeo.
The point is, it's easy to paint the picture that Brito is even better than his already strong 5-2 record. Neither of his UFC losses were one sided, and all five of his wins came via stoppage. That's partially a product of his extremely high pace fighting style, which shows itself in both the striking and grappling realms.
Brito has the clearer advantage on the feet against Sabatini, but he grapples at a similar rate as the submission specialist. Where he can get himself in trouble is over aggression on the ground. Brito got ahead of himself looking for a back take against Gomis that led to a reversal, which cost him the round on two of three judges scorecards.
It was a similar scenario against Algeo, who also reversed a first round takedown into top position.
Against lesser grapplers, Brito's skill and athleticism has allowed him to pick up quick finishes on the mat. Sabatini is almost certainly the toughest grappling test of Brito's career, so a key question in this fight will be whether Brito can resist the urge to initiate grappling when takedown opportunities present themselves.
It almost feels pointless to discuss the striking dynamic in this fight, given how clear of an edge Brito has. I'd describe him as "effectively wild" as he'll unleash wide hooks and overhands rather than a tight boxing style, but his speed and aggression allow that style to work.
Sabatini is a technically sound striker, but he's been overwhelmed by hyper aggressive fighters in the past. Both of his UFC losses came via first round knockout, against opponents who had their foot on the gas from the opening bell.
On the other hand, while both men are black belts in BJJ, Sabatini is a clear level above Brito on the ground. He was a D1 wrestler at Rider University, and has an undefeated record as a professional grappler.
Sabatini's takedown ability is better than his accuracy number indicates, as he's often credited (or charged) with multiple attempts while he's chain wrestling between techniques. If he's able to close the distance inside of Brito's wild strikes, he should be able to find takedowns relatively consistently.
Sabatini vs. Brito Prediction
This is a tough fight to pick from a moneyline standpoint, as a bet on either man is a bet on them to break their typical tendency in some way.
For Brito, he needs to avoid grappling with an opponent where that's not his clearest edge. Deserved or not, that's what cost him in each of his UFC losses.
On the Sabatini side, he needs to come out ready for flurries from Brito, and avoid getting caught in the first few exchanges as he has in the past. If he can do so, he'll have plenty of opportunities to corner Brito in the smaller Apex cage.
While my lean at the odds is on Sabatini, there's a better way to play this one. I'll take the under 1.5 rounds at +122 via FanDuel. Sabatini's grappling edge is large enough that he should be able to find an early finish — if Brito doesn't pick up a quick knockout of his own at the start of Rounds 1 or 2.
With that said, if the line on Sabatini gets clear of +200 by fight night, I'd consider an additional sprinkle on him to win.
Billy's Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds +122 (FanDuel)
