Pedro Munhoz vs. Dominick Cruz Odds
| Approx. 9 p.m. ET | |
| ESPN 2 | |
Former UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz goes for a second straight win, as he faces Pedro Munhoz at UFC 269.
Cruz beat Casey Kenney at UFC 259 in March in a tightly contested fight that ended by split decision. Munhoz has lost three of his last four fights, although those were against Aljamain Sterling, Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo.
Both fighters are in the top-10 at 135 pounds, so a win would push them toward the top of the division.
Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Munhoz | Cruz | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-6 (1 NC) | 23-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:34 | 16:56 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/7/86 | 3/9/85 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.55 | 3.65 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 32% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.02 | 2.42 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 72% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.62 | 2.99 |
| TD Acc | 21% | 46% |
| TD Def | 80% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.1 |
Saturday will mark Cruz's third fight since returning from a 3.5-year layoff. While he is still a top-level fighter, Cruz has shown some signs of regression, and notably, for this fight, he did not deal well with the leg kicks from Henry Cejudo (landed 23-of-25) and Casey Kenney (landed 23-of-26) in his last two bouts.
Munhoz fires leg kicks as hard and as often as anyone in the sport (landed 37-of-42 against Jose Aldo, 44-of-52 against Frankie Edgar, and 32-of-42 against Aljamain Sterling in his last three fights). Cruz's game is predicated on movement and his ability to dart in and out of the pocket, but if Munhoz can land his leg kicks early and cut off that movement, he should take complete control over the fight.
Cruz has a 3-inch advantage in both height and reach but seemingly has no finishing upside against Munhoz, who is a durable high-level jiu-jitsu practitioner.
Munhoz vs. Cruz Pick
In theory, Cruz could have a path to victory through control time (2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes, 46% accuracy), but Munhoz has excellent takedown defense (80%) and a nasty guillotine choke.
At best, Cruz can win a close decision in this fight, predicated on volume. However, nearly all of the finishing upside lies with Munhoz, who possesses a clear power advantage.
The four outcomes here, in my assessment, are 1) Munhoz finish; 2) dominant Munhoz decision; 3) close Munhoz decision; 4) close Cruz decision. Even if Munhoz can't entirely disrupt Cruz's movement, the striking should be close on power optics alone.
I projected Munhoz's moneyline closer to -150, and I think he's the clear value side in this fight.
However, I also value the fight to go the distance (projected -256, listed -200) and Munhoz to win by decision (projected +176, listed +200).
The Pick: Pedro Munhoz (-120)
