Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Predictions, Picks, Odds for UFC Macau

Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Odds for UFC Macau

Check out my Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo predictions, picks and odds for UFC Macau on Saturday, November 23, with my betting preview and breakdown.

On Saturday, the UFC will return to Macau for the first time since 2014 with a 13-fight card featuring a critical bantamweight showdown between former flyweight champion and No. 5 bantamweight contender Deiveson Figueiredo and former bantamweight champion and current No. 3 contender Petr Yan.

Figueiredo enters on a three-fight winning streak since moving up to the 135-pound division last year – with wins over Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt, and Marlon "Chito" Vera. Saturday will mark his eighth career main event or five-round fight; however, only two of those fights (his win and draw against Brandon Moreno) have seen the championship rounds.

Saturday's matchup will also mark Yan's eighth career main event or five-round fight; he's seen the championship rounds on seven occasions, and added rounds favor his calculated fighting style.

Yan is just 2-4 in his six fights since winning vacant bantamweight gold against Jose Aldo at UFC 251 in 2020. However, those losses include his disqualification and subsequent controversial split decision against Aljamain Sterling, a controversial split loss to Sean O'Malley, and a one-sided loss (while dealing with an injury) against current champion Merab Dvalishvili.

Here's my Yan vs. Figueiredo pick and prediction.

Yan vs. Figueiredo Prediction & Tale of the Tape

Deiveson Figueiredo's skill set has translated better than anticipated since moving up from flyweight to bantamweight, and he has proven to be more than a size bully at 125; Figueiredo is relying more heavily on his offensive wrestling and grappling than trying his knockout power against more comparably sized opponents.

Before his quadriology with the uber-durable Brandon Moreno, Figueiredo's knockdown rate at flyweight (and pound-for-pound power) compared favorably to any fighter in the sport (including Francis Ngannou). He overpowered most flyweights on the feet but could also comfortably change levels (47% takedown success at flyweight) against smaller opponents with minimal resistance.

Figueiredo has attempted 26 takedowns across his 39 octagon minutes at bantamweight (0.67 per minute, 8.7 per fight), compared to 38 takedown attempts across 14 flyweight bouts (0.23 per minute, 2.7 per fight). Figueiredo cut a ton of weight to make 125, and he's seemingly able to wrestle more aggressively without cutting as much weight at 135.

Still, he's having a far more difficult time getting bantamweights to the mat (23%) than he did with flyweights (47%) – and Yan (85% takedown defense; denied 109 of 128 attempts) is one of the better counter-grapplers in the bantamweight division, if not the entire promotion.

Figueiredo can stay competitive with Yan on the feet, particularly early. Yan tends to take the first round off against nearly every opponent to get his reads; he's dropped the opening round on at least one scorecard in each of his past seven fights. Live bet Yan after Round 1 – his volume typically ramps up significantly after five minutes (35, 77, 71 strike attempts by round in his last fight against Song Yadong).

Yan is the much more technical striker with a superior statistical profile, and he should ultimately edge all kickboxing rounds (+0.7 strike differential per minute at a distance over Figueiredo), particularly after the opening frame. Yan is six years younger and exceptionally durable, and he should have a clear cardio advantage for the final ten minutes of the fight, too, mainly if Figueiredo wrestled proactively for the first three rounds.

Figueiredo likely needs multiple backtakes (and a slow start from Yan) to win enough minutes to secure a decision. He's controlled his Bantamweight opposition for about ten of 39 octagon minutes; I'd wager that he isn't able to spend 25% of this fight (over six minutes) in control positions against Yan.

Yan has a crafty offensive takedown game (51% accuracy, attempted 1.5 per five minutes at distance). Figueiredo is a much better offensive grappler than he is defensively (59% takedown defense, permitted 33 of 56 attempts), and I wouldn't be surprised to find the Russian in control positions to both break Figueiredo's pressure and potentially tire out the older fighter. DraftKings has Yan Over 1.5 takedowns at -115 and Figueiredo at +120; the betting market agrees Yan is likelier to land them, but I don't see value on either prop.

Figueiredo's likeliest path to victory is a narrow decision win, whereas Yan seemingly has all the dominant decision and finishing upside.

Yan vs. Figueiredo Pick and Prediction

I projected Petr Yan as a -389 favorite (79.6% implied) for the main event at UFC Macau and expect this fight to go to a decision about 64% of the time (-178 implied).

As a result, I project value on the favorite, overs, and decision props with a correlated edge on Yan to win by decision (projected -107, listed +125 at FanDuel); I'd use the latter as a round-robin leg.

Bet Yan's moneyline straight to -350 (77.8% implied) – at just under a two percent edge – or use his moneyline as a parlay piece up to -380 (79.2% implied). Additionally, target a better price on Yan in the live market if he drops the first or second round and the price moves in.

Yan's finishing upside is likely tied to attritional damage and his perceived cardio advantage in the latter rounds. While you could consider betting Yan to win in Round 4 (+1500) or Round 5 (+1800), I'd instead place a same-game parlay (SGP) with Yan and Over 2.5 Rounds (-135) – at the same price as his odds to win in Rounds 4, 5, or by decision at other books.

I also prefer SGP at the same price as Yan's point spread (-5.5, -135); you're sacrificing an early Yan finish for the safety of a win on a 49-46, 48-47 (x2) decision at the same number.

Sean's Pick: Petr Yan (-300 at BetMGM) | Same Game Parlay (-135 at DraftKings): Petr Yan & Over 2.5 Rounds | Yan Live Anytime after Round 1