Phil Hawes vs. Chris Curtis Odds
Chris Curtis will finally get the chance of a lifetime, debuting against Phil Hawes on the UFC 268 prelims at Madison Square Garden, one of the biggest cards of the year.
Curtis was given a chance to earn a UFC contract on the Dana White Contender Series back in 2018 where he impressively won by hook-kick TKO. Dana White opted not to give him a contract and Curtis immediately retired after the devastating rejection.
Athleticism will be on full display in the prelims and perhaps no fight has the potential to be more impressive than this matchup. Hawes loves to charge after his opponents early in fights and get that highlight-reel, flash knockout.
Curtis reeled off five straight wins in lower promotions since the beginning of 2020, four of those coming by way of TKO. Let's break down the odds and matchup in what should be a firefight on Saturday.
Tale of the Tape
| Hawes | Curtis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-2 | 26-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:47 | 11:37 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/8/1989 | 7/15/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.44 | 7.23 |
| SS Accuracy | 58% | 70% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.29 | 5.34 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.70 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 0% |
| TD Def | 100% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Phil Hawes is someone that I have followed intently for most of his career. He is from my home state of New Jersey where he began his wrestling career. This has proven to be very useful for him against his recent competition.
Hawes has landed multiple takedowns in his past two victories (both decisions). He typically likes to take the center of the octagon early and see if opponents can take his best shots. But when he fails to knock out his opponent early, he does run into cardio problems.
The wrestling and top-control have really bailed Hawes out of bad situations in the past. Importantly, his opponent profiles as a step down in competition.
Curtis' retirement after his DWCS win in 2018 was short-lived, he returned to fighting at the PFL among the other promotions. His time at the PFL resulted in just one win along with three defeats, though he has rebounded in other promotions.
Curtis is going to prefer a stand-up battle against Hawes far more than any grappling exchanges. Curtis has shown vulnerabilities in his takedown defense against the cage and against single-leg takedowns.
Ray Cooper's strategy against Curtis was a thing of beauty in the PFL Semifinals from 2019. He wrestled Curtis early before landing a devastating KO early in Round 2.
Hawes vs. Curtis Pick
Curtis is a very difficult underdog to back this weekend. He is making his UFC debut this weekend and was just 1-3 in the PFL. His inability to compete with the talent in the PFL does not bode well against a talent like Hawes.
Furthermore, Curtis' recent opponents during his win streak are not close to UFC caliber. The combined record of his last three opponents in their past five bouts is 6-9.
In this fight, I would expect Hawes to win in under 2.5 rounds and at +136 on PointsBet, I would bet that prop down to +120.
I almost never recommend laying big money on a -325 favorite. I would, however, look use Hawes' moneyline as a parlay piece. Hawes combined with another favorite like Bobby Green (-200) or Ian Garry (-400) should provide some extra profit in a parlay — about +145 at those odds.
If Hawes runs into some cardio problems he could even go for a submission from top control. While this is unlikely, his KO/TKO prop sits at +104 on PointsBet. Interestingly, the under 2.5 round prop at +136 includes a possible submission, no matter how unlikely it is that Hawes goes for one.
Take the value in under 2.5 rounds for Hawes and if you are looking for a parlay builder, this is an excellent piece to add.
The Pick: Phil Hawes Under 2.5 Rounds (+136)
