Punahele Soriano vs. Nick Maximov Odds
The co-main event for UFC Fight Night features the newest UFC fighter calling Stockton, California home. Nick Maximov is getting quite the push in a co-main event spot against Punahele Soriano, who is known for his two impressive first-round knockouts prior to a loss to Brendan Allen.
Soriano has showcased fierce and fight-altering power in his UFC career. However, his fight against Allen raised tons of questions about his stamina and ability to hang in against fighters that he can't take out early.
Will Maximov be able to weather the storm against Soriano? Below I preview Saturday's co-main event.
Tale of the Tape
| Soriano | Maximov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-1 | 7-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:31 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 76" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 11/22/92 | 12/23/97 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.44 | 1.70 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.20 | 1.10 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.58 | 3.00 |
| TD Acc | 66% | 30% |
| TD Def | 100% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Maximov is a decorated collegiate wrestler, and that will factor heavily into his game plan on Saturday. Where this fight gets dicey for Maximov is his striking. Soriano will be the best striker that Maximov has fought in his seven-fight professional career.
Early in the fight against Brundage, we saw Maximov standing at range with his chin up high. If Maximov does that against Soriano we could see another highlight-reel knockout.
Daniel Cormier said it best, "Soriano is winging his punches too much. Putting too much effort and chasing knockouts."
Well, that's exactly what he has been doing his whole career, including against Allen. Soriano put everything into a first-round knockout against Allen, and when he didn't get it, he looked absolutely exhausted in Rounds 2 and 3.
Maximov is a pretty well-hyped prospect in the UFC. His wrestling and grappling appear to be top-notch. If he is able to avoid getting clipped early, it is very easy to envision a suffocating win with his grappling.
Soriano has not shown off much takedown defense, defending just one takedown in the UFC. That one takedown against Allen was hardly an attempt at all but more of a level change. Even in that one entry, Soriano looked very susceptible to double legs despite not going to the mat.
Soriano vs. Maximov Pick
Soriano is +225 to win this fight in the first round on DraftKings. This is by far the most likely outcome of the fight. However, I am steering clear of Soriano to win this fight at all.
Soriano will probably rush in quickly and look to knockout Maximov. Understanding that outcome is likely, I would prefer to wait until after the first round to make a bet on Maximov's moneyline.
At +160 pre-fight, Maximov could easily be +400 if he clearly loses the first round. If Soriano uses a significant amount of energy, expect Maximov to take over from here.
Maximov needs to know he is going to get hit early roll with those punches and focus on takedowns. If he does that, he is in an excellent position to take Soriano's back and get a submission like he nearly has in his last fight.
Furthermore, Maximov is rarely looking to kill the clock en route to wins, despite two decision victories. The best way to bet this fight is to watch the first round and get the best moneyline price on Maximov, especially with a possible finish on either side.
Pre-fight I would take a stab on Maximov to win by submission (+550 on DraftKings), which I would bet down to +500. If you want to take a shot at a method of victory and round prop, Maximov to win in the second round is +1900 on FanDuel.
The Pick: Maximov live after Round 1 | Maximov Wins by Submission +550
