Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden Odds
| Brown Odds | -250 |
| Gooden Odds | +195 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+102 / -130) |
| Venue | UFC APEX |
| Time | Approx. 6 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
The co-main event for UFC Vegas 39 came with a bit of drama on Friday.
Jared Gooden badly missed weight leading to plenty of frustration from Randy Brown, who made the 171-pound weight limit.
Dude misses weigh by 4 1/2 lbs lol. ok i get 20 % from purse, but the issue is homie only got 3 fights in the UFC. He's prob making like 15grand. So i get 20% of That in exchange for a weight advantage smh. Gotta start hitting these dudes for like 50% #unapologeticallyoverweight
— Randy Brown (@TouchNgo_) October 8, 2021
The fight will go on as scheduled, but Gooden will be sacrificing 20% of his fight purse, which Brown is not particularly satisfied with. Brown is still a sizable favorite in this fight despite the weight miss.
So how should bettors approach this fight? Let's break down the matchup below.
Tale of the Tape
| Brown | Gooden | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-4 | 18-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:46 | 10:23 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/8/90 | 12/5/93 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.72 | 5.04 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.79 | 7.55 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.98 | 0.96 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 100% |
| TD Def | 71% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Sportsbooks have not really adjusted this line at all due to the weight miss, despite the fact that fighters who miss weight win their bout 52% of the time per BetMMA.tips.
Interestingly, fighters whose odds were between +233 and +186 (30-35% implied) won just three times in nine fights (33% of the time). These trends highlight the fact that the weight miss is helpful to Gooden but statistically it sides as irrelevant.
Matchup-wise, the co-main event is going to be extremely entertaining. Both fighters finish far more often than they go to the decision (Gooden 62.5% finish rate, Brown 82.5% finish rate).
Gooden is 1-2 in the UFC and has been out-struck by just about every opponent he has faced. Gooden is a BJJ brown belt with 6 wins by submission. Despite his pedigree in the grappling department, Brown will have the grappling advantage in this fight.
Brown vs. Gooden Pick
Randy Brown is another "club and sub" type of fighter. If he hurts his opponent, he is prepared to suffocate him on the ground and win via submission.
This makes me afraid to truly bet on any of his finishing props, although KO/TKO at +280 on FanDuel is very enticing. I view Gooden as the type of fighter to swing for the fences and if he doesn't get it could wilt under pressure.
Brown's well-rounded power and grappling combo make this a nightmare matchup for Gooden. I will take Brown to win this fight and don't see it going to decision.
FanDuel is offering a ton of value on their "Time Props". Fight not to start Round 2 is +225 which I think is going to be particularly valuable. I cap this fight to end in the first round, about 34% of the time (+194). Both fighters look for finishes early and have a variety of ways to get there.
Furthermore, PointsBet is offering Brown at under 2.5 rounds +175 giving us both submission and knockout. I would bet that down to +145.
The Pick: Fight Does Not Start Round 2 (+225 bet to +194) | Brown Under 2.5 Rounds (+175)
