Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry Odds
Rising Bantamweight challenger Raoni Barcelos will face a newcomer to the promotion, Victor Henry, in the featured prelim bout of UFC 270. The two fighters were slated to meet in December, but the fight was reportedly moved after Henry tested positive for COVID.
Henry is new to the UFC, but a veteran in the sport with plenty professional bouts under his belt. Barcelos is seeking to bounce back after his first loss in the UFC — a majority decision against Timur Valiev.
Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Barcelos | Henry | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-2 | 21-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:35 | 0:0 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/1/87 | 5/4/87 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.39 | 0.0 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 0% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.36 | 0.0 |
| SS Defense | 66% | 0% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.79 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 56% | 0% |
| TD Def | 92% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Barcelos can compete with almost any fighter in the UFC based solely on his skillset. Still, the Brazilian never appears to have a game plan when he enters the octagon, often ignoring the easiest path to victory on the mat and choosing to engage in low-volume striking affairs where he constantly pressures but rarely lets his hands go.
When Barcelos does throw, he has excellent power and technique and is highly adept at moving out of the way of his opponent's counters (66% striking defense).
Raoni Barcelos hands out a little five-piece to get the TKO win 👀. pic.twitter.com/fhouxFHNap
— FOX Sports: UFC (@UFCONFOX) July 15, 2018
Although he's making his UFC debut on Saturday, Victory Henry is a 26-fight journeyman who holds wins over multiple UFC veterans.
"La Mongosta" is incredibly durable (never been finished in his career) and given Barcelos' propensity to make fights closer than they need to be, this moneyline is likely a bit wide.
However, I suspect that Barcelos is the far superior grappler, given his background in both wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and I would be disappointed if he didn't try to grapple for a significant portion of this fight.
Barcelos vs. Henry Pick
I'm tempted by two plus-money plays here: fight to go the distance (projected +104, listed +120) and Barcelos to win via submission (projected +309, listed +450), and I'll take a sprinkle of the latter since it aligned with my initial read on the fight.
However, I may be kicking myself for not taking plus money on an over when Barcelos refuses to let his hands go yet again.
The Pick: Raoni Barcelos wins by Submission (+450)
