Ricky Turcios (12-4) faces Bernardo Sopaj (11-3) in the second early prelim at UFC 311 on Saturday night at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.
Turcios is coming off a loss to Raul Rosas Jr. in his last fight, while Sopaj saw a three-fight winning streak snapped in March against Vinicius Oliveira.
Let's get into my Turcios vs. Sopaj prediction and preview in the bantamweight division tonight.
Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj Odds, Prediction
| Bantamweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ricky Turcios Odds | +205 |
| Bernado Sopaj Odds | -250 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-210 / +160) |
Odds via DraftKings as of Friday night.
Projection: Bernado Sopaj (77.3%)
This fight was initially booked in November, but Turcios pulled out after weigh-ins due to illness. Sopaj was a -375 favorite (79% implied) at the time of cancellation and currently sits at a more reasonable -245 price tag (71% implied) as of Friday.
Sopaj impressed in his short-notice UFC debut against Vinicius Oliveira last March, leading on the scorecards after 10 minutes before tiring out and suffering a brutal knockout loss in the third round. Oliveira flattered that loss with his subsequent win over Ricky Simon, who could not ground the Brazilian.
Turcios is the longer man (3" taller, 5" reach advantage) in this fight and offers plenty of striking output, but Sopaj should have a clear wrestling advantage and will look to control this contest on the mat from top position.
Sopaj has a well-rounded skillset and serious potential. He's seven years younger than Turcios, the more serious prospect from a promotional standpoint, and he should be a stronger athlete for the duration of the contest.
I set Sopaj as a -341 favorite and feel that the original pricing for this matchup was closer to correct; I'd lay the juice on the favorite up to -305 or use him as a parlay piece to -330.
I also show slight value on Sopaj by KO/TKO (projected +362, listed +390) or inside the distance (projected +223, listed +230), depending upon the book. I'd consider using either for round-robin purposes.
Bets
- Benardo Sopaj (-250, 0.25u) at BetMGM; bet to -305
- Parlay (-145, 0.1u) at FanDuel: Benardo Sopaj (-260) & Jailton Almeida (-450)
