Rob Font vs. Jose Aldo Odds
| Font Odds | -155 |
| Aldo Odds | +135 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-150 / +120) |
| Venue | UFC APEX |
| Time | Approx. 12:30 a.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute UFC odds here. | |
The ever-improving bantamweight contender Rob Font will take on legend Jose Aldo in the headliner for this weekend's UFC card. Aldo has reinvented himself in a smaller weight division after his brutal knockout loss to Conor McGregor in 2015.
Rob Font had only one UFC fight on his resume when Aldo fought McGregor, and after getting into MMA late in life, his skills in the sport have grown rapidly. The 34-year-old could be on the brink of a title shot, with a win over the wily vet Saturday.
So, is there betting value on the favorite to come away with a victory? Below I break down this Saturday's main event.
Tale of the Tape
| Font | Aldo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-4 | 30-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:26 | 13:46 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/25/87 | 9/9/86 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.58 | 3.63 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.57 | 3.59 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.20 | 0.55 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 56% |
| TD Def | 53% | 91% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.1 |
In his last fight, Font easily defeated fan-favorite Cody Garbrandt. Font was levels better than him at boxing and even out grappled him late. In a strictly boxing match, Font might beat everyone in the division.
In a kickboxing affair with Aldo, low-calf kicks are going to be a cause of concern for Font. Aldo is one of the best leg-kicking fighters in UFC history. Rumor has it, he once flirted with the idea of retiring from MMA and becoming a professional soccer player.
If Font is not adept at stopping leg kicks he will really struggle to move around the cage. His goal should be to stay on the outside and pick Aldo apart at range.
Grappling shouldn't play too much of a factor in this fight. Font had two takedowns against Garbrandt in May. Nevertheless, Aldo's 91% takedown defense will likely thwart any takedown potential attempts from landing.
In a primarily striking matchup, Font is the rightful favorite. His volume and power combinations are weapons that Aldo does not have. Aldo's low calf kicks are an X-factor and a route to victory, but there's not much else there.
Font vs. Aldo Pick
As is the case for all UFC main events, this is a five-round fight, which likely favors Font who has much more power and fluid boxing. If this fight were three rounds, I would think that Aldo could win a decision.
However, in a five-round fight Font has more skills at this point to get the job done. He could land a late TKO but I see this as much less likely.
This fight to go to a decision is -130 on DraftKings. This is an excellent bet and covers any close calls on a decision.
Interestingly, eight of the last nine main events have gone to a decision. That trend is likely to continue again this weekend. Furthermore, I will be waiting to see if Font will be plus money live in the early minutes of the second round.
Font is an excellent live bet and his over 2.5 rounds at +110 on DraftKings is the best way to bet on him. He should have more cardio and power to win this fight.
The Pick: Fight goes the distance -130 | Font wins in over 2.5 Rounds +110
