Rong Zhu vs. Ignacio Bahamondes Odds
| Zhu Odds | +175 |
| Bahamondes Odds | -210 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-160/ +130) |
| Venue | UFC APEX |
| Time | Approx. 6:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. | |
UFC Vegas 49 has six fights on its prelim card and nearly lost this bout. After a disappointing weight miss, Rong Zhu will still face off against Ignacio Bahamondes in the featured prelim bout. Bahamondes will collect a piece of Rong's fight purse, and any bonuses will go to Bahamondes.
Bahamondes is 6'3" compared to Rong's 5'9". The impressive size difference at 155 pounds will always be there for Bahamondes. Expect the unexpected from this weekend's featured prelim out.
Tale of the Tape
| Zhu | Bahamondes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-4 | 12-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:48 | 12:29 |
| Height | 5'9" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 160 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthdox |
| Date of birth | 3/7/00 | 8/27/97 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.33 | 7.56 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.63 | 5.32 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.56 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 75% | 0% |
| TD Def | 100% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
Last time out, Bahamondes had an impressive KO victory against Roosevelt Roberts. His size difference is going to take Bahamondes pretty far, as long as he can make lightweight. He might be the biggest fighter in lightweight history (if I am wrong feel free to correct me).
We have seen Bahamondes get into heated striking battles, most notably against John Makdessi. In that fight, he won my respect as a tough fighter who can stand strikes on just about anyone. What we have not seen is him defend legitimate takedowns.
Rong is going to be shooting for his life most of this fight. His weight miss is definitely of concern if you are looking to back him (he looked completely dejected on the scales).
The best bet for Rong to nullify the size difference is to limit the distance and put Bahamondes against the cage. Bahamondes will be looking to chop off Rong's lead leg where he stands pretty heavy on the front foot.
Rong also has solid leg kicks himself. This fight will be won or lost by Rong with takedowns, forward pressure and leg kicks. It is possible that Rong (just 21 years old) is improving his stand-up rapidly. If he does not show off improved jabs and body combinations, he will lose this fight.
Rong vs. Bahamondes Pick
Rong's body-lock takedowns and grappling transitions are rock solid. My issue with backing Rong isn't really skill based. His skills could theoretically provide some issues for Bahamondes.
However, the fighter that will give Bahamondes his issues is the one that is better than him at striking and working in the clinch. Rong does a lot of grappling which could work to his advantage if he can get Bahamondes to the mat.
With the size difference, Rong shooting for a lot of takedowns is a difficult-to-back strategy from a betting perspective. In fact, I do see some value on Bahamondes' moneyline which is -210 on DraftKings.
It is likely that Bahamondes just picks Rong apart with a steady diet of low, mid and high kicks. With the possibility of a late stoppage, I am backing Bahamondes to win this fight in Round 3 or by decision at +120 on DraftKings.
This alternate round prop is worth a bet down to +110 before I just take a stab at his moneyline. Bahamondes is a worthy parlay piece at his moneyline price up to -220.
The Pick: Bahamondes wins in Round 3 or by decision +120 (DraftKings)
