Check out the Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris pick for UFC Vegas 101 on Saturday, January 11, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris Odds
| Ponzinibbio Odds | -130 |
| Harris Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+105 / -135) |
| Location | Apex Center, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 101 odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 310 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
The first co-main event of the year features two veteran welterweights known for putting on exciting fights. While it's not the most impactful in terms of rankings, there's a good shot this one will end up as the fight of the night due to the brawling style of both participants.
It's also an important one for both fighters personally, as they both come in on a loss and could be in danger of being cut.
Here's my Ponzinibbio vs. Harris pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Ponzinibbio | Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 30-8 | 19-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:14 | 6:20 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/26/1986 | 7/9/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.74 | 3.18 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.55 | 2.66 |
| SS Defense | 66% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.59 | 1.57 |
| TD Acc | 32% | 29% |
| TD Def | 66% | 55% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.8 |
While they're both around the same age, Santiago Ponzinibbio has far more experience — especially in the UFC — than Carlston Harris. Ponzinibbio has been with the promotion since 2013, with an 11-7 overall record. At one point, he had a seven-fight winning streak and looked to be on the cusp of title contention.
A lot has changed since then, as he enters this fight having lost four of his last five. However, as I pointed out in my Luck Ratings piece this week, three of those losses came via split decision.
All four of those losses were against relatively high-level competition as well, with this serving as something of a step down in competition.
"The Argentinian Dagger" is an aggressive striker who fights best moving forward. He has heavy hands, with six of his UFC victories coming via knockout, though his over-swinging on strikes leads to a lot of swings and misses.
While Ponzinibbio is fairly sound defensively, he can get sucked into brawls on occasion. His chin has been solid by and large but is certainly a concern at age 38. Still, his recent knockout loss to Kevin Holland wasn't an especially bad one, with Ponzinibbio protesting the stoppage immediately.
On the other hand, Harris is comfortable fighting moving backward and on the outside, circling his opponent near the edge of the cage. He throws awkward punches from weird angles but typically doesn't do much damage with them. His one UFC knockout win was a somewhat questionable stoppage.
His best attribute is by far his front headlock series of chokes. Harris secured a miracle comeback over Jeremiah Wells after being dominated for two rounds by catching Wells on a sloppy takedown attempt and putting him to sleep with an Anaconda. That could explain why he likes to work with his back to the fence, as it could bait opponents into exposing their necks on a wrestling shot.
Still, that's not a great look against Ponzinibbio, who only occasionally grapples proactively. Harris probably needs to force the issue if he wants this fight to feature any grappling.
"Mozambique" is an acceptable wrestler, but has struggled to land takedowns against better opponents. All five of the takedowns Harris has landed in the UFC came against the same opponent (Jared Gooden) and he's 0-5 combined in his other fights. For that reason, this one should stay mostly on the feet.
Ponzinibbio vs. Harris Pick, Prediction
The betting line has moved heavily towards Ponzinibbio all week. He opened as an underdog and was available at -111 on Monday when I bet him as part of my Luck Ratings.
While I agree with the continued movement, this price is getting a little steep. Ponzinibbio is the better overall striker — but there's always a chance he finds himself on the wrong side of a wild exchange.
Plus, the tricky submissions from Harris are always a threat, even against an infrequent grappler like Ponzinibbio.
None of which is to say I'm interested in Harris, though. Instead, if you didn't catch the better number on Ponzinibbio, look to his +195 inside-the-distance prop at FanDuel.
The Argentinian has a decent shot of finishing this one thanks to his power and Harris' somewhat sloppy striking.
Billy's Picks: Santiago Ponzinibbio Inside the Distance +195 (FanDuel)
