Sean O'Malley vs. Kris Moutinho Odds
Fan favorite Sean O'Malley is back in the Octagon after just over three months since his last fight to showcase his talents on the UFC 264 main card.
O'Malley originally was supposed to fight Louis Smolka, but will now face short notice-debutant Kris Moutinho, who is 9-4 on the regional scene, with two knockout losses, and two submission losses.
O'Malley is know for his flashy finishes and enters this fight as the biggest favorite on the card. Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight and where I'm looking to find value on a heavy favorite.
For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
| O'Malley | Moutinho | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-1 | 9-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:06 | 0:0 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135.5 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 68" |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 10/24/94 | 8/9/92 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.31 | 0.0 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 0% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.28 | 0 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 0% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.79 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 0% |
| TD Def | 60% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.0 |
O'Malley could absolutely flatten Moutinho with his first punch — or catch him clean with a head kick. He has massive physical advantages (4-inches in height and reach), is significantly more explosive, and I'm not certain that Moutinho is UFC caliber.
O'Malley has everything to lose by taking this fight, though, and even if he wins in a spectacular fashion he may not secure a performance bonus; he's that big of a favorite where the outcome — a public execution — is almost assumed.
"Sugar" looked spectacular in his recent win over former big-time prospect Thomas Almeida, picking apart the Brazilian with footwork and an assortment of strikes for 2.5 rounds (91-25 on significant strikes), before securing a violent finish.
O'Malley has extra incentive to figure out all of Moutinho's tendencies before launching his assault — an upset of this caliber would be both astonishing and legacy-defining.
O'Malley vs. Moutinho Pick
O'Malley's implied odds (89.3%) align with my projection on the fight. And at that price, he's not even worth including in parlays.
Most of the props are steamed beyond reason, too. O'Malley's first-round prop (-110) is a coin flip and figures to climb higher if anything.
I projected value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -773, listed -455) and on O'Malley to win inside the distance (listed -345, projected -426), but it's not my style to lay that much juice on a fight.
I'm playing O'Malley to win in Round 2 (+320) since he could be tentative to avoid an early mistake. He also made that specific prediction in his press conference — I never read too much into those things — because even if that is his intention it probably depends more upon his opponent's chin.
The under 1.5 Rounds (-190) is also interesting — and I think that ends up cashing. But a one-sided fight like this isn't particularly bettable — and O'Malley may make you sweat it out into the second round.
The Pick: Sean O'Malley wins in Round 2 (+320)
