SeungWoo Choi vs. Josh Culibao Odds
Saturday's final prelim fight at UFC 275 features two Featherweights — SeungWoo Choi and Josh Culibao — looking to make a splash. Choi had a three-fight win streak snapped in his last fight after getting submitted by Alex Caceres. Meanwhile, Culibao is coming off a win in his last fight last year.
Where's the value in Saturday's featured prelim? I break down what number you should look for in the matchup.
Tale of the Tape
| Choi | Culibao | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-4 | 9-1-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:24 | 12:40 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/3/1992 | 5/24/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.38 | 2.92 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.91 | 3.05 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg. | 0.88 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 57% | 0% |
| TD Def | 66% | 86% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.4 |
Choi has the edge in height and reach with an inch on Culibao in both areas. Choi also has the edge in striking numbers (+0.46 differential) and Culibao actually takes more damage — 3.05 strikes absorbed to 2.92 strikes landed. While I rate Choi as the superior fighter, this should be a close and competitive striking matchup where the margins in each round are very narrow.
Choi is at his best when his opponents oblige him in a striking matchup, where he makes the most out of his reach. He's lost fights when opponents can grapple him, but Culibao is not up for the task. That said, Culibao carries reliable power and can undoubtedly swing the fight in his favor with a couple of big moments.
Choi vs. Culibao Pick
Ultimately, I expect Choi to secure a close three-round decision. Still, even though I project slight value on his moneyline now (projected -236, listed -225), I would wait for Choi's moneyline to drop closer to -200 before jumping in.
Moreover, I don't see any value on the totals or any winning method props for this fight, so it's a pass unless Choi's moneyline odds continue to drop.
For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
