Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page UFC Saudi Arabia Odds
| Magomedov Odds | -210 |
| Page Odds | +160 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds -250/+190 |
| Location | ANB Arena | Riyadh, Saudi Arabia |
| Bout Time | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Saudi Arabia odds via DraftKings as of Thursday Night. Bet on UFC Saudi Arabia with our DraftKings promo code. | |
The UFC Saudi Arabia co-main event, features fast-rising prospect Shara "Bullet" Magomedov taking on the toughest test of his career in former Bellator standout Michael "Venum" Page.
While it's a big step up for Shara Bullet, it's also another stylistically friendly matchup for the striker and promises to be a technical affair contested mostly on the feet.
Here's my Magomedov vs. Page prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Magomedov | Page | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-0 | 22-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:05 | 8:36 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 5/16/1994 | 5/7/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.82 | 2.38 |
| SS Accuracy | 65% | 65% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.49 | 1.45 |
| SS Defense | 42% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 0.44 |
| TD Acc | N/A | 25% |
| TD Def | 71% | 63% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
Sharaputdin Magomedov took a big step towards being a serious player in the UFC middleweight division with his last fight.
All of the headlines (rightly) were about the finish. A spectacular double spinning back fist that flatlined Armen Petrosyan, a technique never before seen in the UFC. However, there was a lot more to his performance than just the ending.
Before that point, Magomedov had shown excellent striking when he was in the driver's seat, getting his strikes off first and pushing his opponent's pace. Petrosyan is an accomplished kickboxer in his own right and took the fight to Magomedov early.
That's where we saw a new facet to Magomedov's game, in terms of both his defensive ability and his counterstriking. While Petrosyan was credited with dozens of leg kicks, Magomedov rarely ate any square, getting off partial checks or stance adjustments that lessened the blows. He also returned fire with much more powerful leg kicks of his own, which slowed Petrosyan down. That's going to be a key factor against the dynamic Michael Page, whose wide stance leaves him susceptible to leg kicks.
Additionally, Magomedov used his lead leg extremely well as a counter-striking weapon. He stayed light on his front foot, quickly drawing it up for roundhouse kicks to the body as well as lead side kicks that disrupted Petrosyan's timing. The latter should also serve him well against Page, who often darts into range on his attacks.
The same lead foot action also set up the spinning back fist KO, with Magomedov feinting the kick before planting the lead leg and spinning, giving Petrosyan a plethora of inputs to react to.
Of course, Page is arguably a considerable step up for Magomedov. One of the most creative and exciting strikers in recent memory, Page went 17-2 in Bellator before making the jump to the UFC.
Page is coming off a relatively competitive loss to Ian Garry at welterweight, where Page got the better of the bulk of the standup exchanges. It was a fairly low volume output (just 21 significant strikes) though he has some big moments leaping in with straight punches, as well as some near misses with more explosive techniques.
Page lost two of the rounds due to Garry spending the bulk of the frame in back control, threatening with some reasonably close choke attempts. On the one hand, Page's ability to not get submitted was fairly impressive. On the other, his inability to escape the position is a big issue. Not only was Page unable to escape, he was mostly unwilling to attempt to free himself.
It's also worth noting that this is the middleweight debut for Page, who's fought at welterweight in the past which is another double-edged sword. It helps the 37-year-old Page stay ahead of the speed curve since larger opponents tend to be a bit slower. However, it hurts him in the power department as well as any potential grappling exchanges.
Magomedov vs. Page Prediction, Pick
The two keys to this fight are likely to be leg kicks and grappling. The former would be an excellent tool for Magomedov to slow down the footwork of Page, which will be a necessary step for Magomedov to find much success on the feet. If Page can float around freely, he could cause problems for the favorite in this one.
Magomedov should be able to do just that though, with his solid leg kicks generally as well as Page's wide and bladed stance opening him up to receive them.
The grappling is a bit more mysterious. Page hasn't looked great in grappling exchanges as an MMA fighter, though he did win a grappling match against Carlos Condit recently. Magomedov hasn't so much as attempted a takedown in his UFC career, though he's been solid defensively. He's also from Dagestan and named Magomedov, which suggests — perhaps undeservedly — a degree of grappling competency.
I'm not so sure Page wins a pure striking match here though, so with Magomedov having some theoretical grappling upside it's hard not to pick him to win. Especially considering the age and size difference at play.
I'm tempted to take Magomedov's point spread of -3.5 at +110 at DraftKings, but rather than get fancy I'm picking "Bullet" straight up. The best line is -185 at BetMGM.
Billy's Pick: Shara Magomedov -185 (BetMGM)
